Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 7/30/24

From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Mariners and Red Sox facing off in an AL matchup. This one gets started at 7:10 PM ET and will be televised on NESN. The money line odds have the Mariners at -119 compared to the Red Sox at +101, and the over/under line is at 9.5 runs.

Seattle will be starting Luis Castillo, while the Red Sox have James Paxton on the mound. The Mariners are currently 2nd in the AL West, while the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East.

BOSTON RED SOX VS SEATTLE MARINERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +101

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 7:10 ET on Tuesday, July 30th.

HOW TO BET THE MARINERS VS RED SOX:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 5 to 4
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Red Sox to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the under

Boston cruised to a 14-7 win over the Mariners in the most recent game of this series. The Red Sox had a huge 3rd inning, scoring seven of their fourteen runs. As for the Mariners, they scored their seven runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were favored at -122 on the money line.

Nick Pivetta got the win for the Red Sox, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with ten strikeouts but issued five walks. Logan Gilbert had a rough outing for the Mariners, taking the loss after going just 2 2/3 innings and giving up seven earned runs.

Randy Arozarena hit the game’s only home run while going 2/3 with three RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Masataka Yoshida did a bit of everything for the Red Sox, going 3/5 with a homer and four RBIs.

Mariners Records & Stats

With an overall record of 56-52, the Mariners are in 2nd place in the AL West, where they are tied with the Astros for the top spot. Seattle will take on the Red Sox today on the road, and they are 3.5 games ahead of the 3rd place Rangers in the division.

Seattle will be looking to even up the series vs. the Red Sox today after dropping the series opener. The Mariners are just 4-6 across their last 10 games overall. As the road favorite, Seattle has gone 13-14 this season, and they are 25-29 on the road overall. At home, the Mariners are 31-23 this season.

When it comes to the run line, the Mariners have been a tough team to figure out this season. They are 48-60 overall, but they have been better on the road (25-29) than at home (23-31). They have covered the run line in three straight games and are 21-18 as an underdog. Their average run differential is just 0.2 runs per game, and they have a scoring margin of 0.4 runs per game at home.

The Seattle Mariners are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox, with the O/U line set at 9.5 runs. The Mariners have a combined run average of 7.6 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 46-57. Their games have averaged 8 runs per game, and their O/U record when the line is set at 9.5 runs is 0-1. Seattle has had just two games this year with O/U lines set at 9.5 runs, accounting for just 1.9% of their games. Their games have had O/U lines set below 9.5 runs in 97.2% of their games this season, and they are currently on a four-game over streak.

Seattle is sending Luis Castillo to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 8-10 and an ERA of 3.38. So far, he has made 22 starts, and opponents are batting .229 this season. In his 22 appearances, Castillo has turned in 14 quality starts and is averaging 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The right-hander most recently faced the Angels and didn’t allow a run in six innings of work, finishing with a no-decision. Before that outing, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.

After being one of the league’s worst offenses at home this season, the Mariners are hoping that their recent hot streaks at the plate for Jorge Polanco and Victor Robles will continue. Polanco has gone 10/37 in his last 10 games, with four homers, and seven RBIs. Robles has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 14/39 in his last 10 games. For the season, Polanco is batting just .218, and Robles is at .219.

Cal Raleigh has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 23 homers are the best on the team and 10th in the MLB. He also has 67 RBIs, which is 11th in the league. Raleigh is also on a five-game hitting streak. Randy Arozarena and Dylan Moore are also on hitting streaks for the Mariners.

Red Sox Records & Stats

Boston is 56-49 overall, putting them 3rd in the AL East, six games behind the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they are 14-13 against other teams in the AL East. The Red Sox have lost three straight series and have an overall series record of 16-13-5 this year.

At home, the Red Sox are 26-27 this year and 30-22 on the road. Boston has struggled as of late, going just 3-7 over their last ten games. This season, they have been the favorite in 54 games, going 32-22. As for their record as the underdog, they are 24-27 overall and 8-10 at home.

When betting on the Red Sox against the run line, it’s been a better idea to take them on the road. Boston has a 29-23 run line record away from Fenway Park, compared to just 20-33 at home. The Red Sox have a positive run differential both at home and on the road, but they have been a better bet to cover the run line in road games.

Today’s over/under line of 9.5 runs is the highest of the season for the Boston Red Sox, who have played to an average of 9 runs per game. The over has hit in 7 of their 14 games with a 9.5-run line, and they have gone over in 5 straight games overall.

Left-hander James Paxton gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces off against the Mariners. Paxton has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 8-2 with an ERA of 4.43. Looking at his overall numbers, Paxton has a WHIP of 1.46 and has issued 4.84 walks per nine innings compared to 6.45 strikeouts. At home, he is 4-0 with a 3.11 ERA, while on the road, he is 4-2 with a 7.55 ERA. In his last outing, Paxton picked up the win, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on four hits. He did give up a homer in that outing.

Over the past seven games, Tyler O’Neill has been swinging a hot bat for the Red Sox, going 10/30 with four home runs and nine RBIs. Jarren Duran has also been a key contributor of late, batting .316 with two homers and nine RBIs in his last eight games. For the season, Duran is batting .291 with 13 homers, and Rafael Devers leads the team with 23 long balls and 64 RBIs.

As a team, the Red Sox are 6th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 3rd best hitting team, with a team batting average of .259. Not only do the Red Sox strike out a lot, they are also near the top of the league in walks, and have the league’s best BABIP.