New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 7/22/24

The Mets are the heavy favorite on the money line today, as they are sitting at -166 compared to the Marlins at +141. This NL East matchup has an over/under line of 8.5 runs, and the game is being played at loanDepot Park in Miami.

First pitch for this one is set for 6:40 PM ET, and BSFL will be televising the game. David Peterson is starting for the Mets, and he will be facing off against Yonny Chirinos for the Marlins, who are 5th in the NL East. New York is 3rd in the division and has an overall record of 50-48, while the Marlins are 35-64.

NEW YORK METS VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: New York Mets Moneyline -166

This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 6:40 ET on Monday, July 22nd.

HOW TO BET THE METS VS MARLINS:

• We have the Mets winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Miami rallied for three runs in the 4th inning in the most recent game of this Mets-Marlins series. The Marlins scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up three in the 4th, picking up a 4-2 win. Heading into the game, the Marlins were at +123 on the money line.

Trevor Rogers only went 4 2/3 innings for the Marlins but gave up just one run and struck out five. Declan Cronin got the win out of the bullpen, and Tanner Scott got the save. Christian Scott had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jake Burger each homered for the Marlins, while Vidal Brujan went 3/4 with an RBI. Xavier Edwards also had a two-hit game at the plate.

Mets Records & Stats

With a record of 50-48, the Mets are 12.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they have gone 17-14 in divisional matchups. New York is on the road today, and they are 2 games above .500 at home (26-26).

New York has won two straight series, and their overall series record is 15-12-5 this year. As the favorite, the Mets are 31-26, and they are 19-22 as the underdog. The Mets have gone 24-22 on the road compared to 26-26 at home.

The Mets have been a solid team to bet on the run line when they are the underdog, going 24-17. They have been a much worse bet when they are the favorite, going 21-36. Their average run margin for the season is just 0.1 runs per game, and they have gone 45-53 on the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.4 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.3 runs per game.

The Mets are on the road against the Marlins today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average in Mets games this season is 9.5 runs, and their over/under record is 52-43. Their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 16-11. This season, 23 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 23.5% of their games. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

David Peterson gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 4-0 with an ERA of 3.09. Peterson’s WHIP for the season is 1.42, and he has turned in four quality starts. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going six innings and not allowing a run. Looking back over his last three outings, Peterson has finished with a no-decision in each one. The left-hander has given up just one earned run in three straight outings.

As a team, the Mets are 8th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and have a collective batting average of .249, which is 8th in the MLB. New York’s team OPS of .738 is also 7th in the league.

Brandon Nimmo has been struggling at the plate of late, going 3/22 in his last seven games, but he still has 16 homers this season. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are also near the top of the Mets’ home run leaderboard, with 19 and 17 homers, respectively. Lindor is batting .253 for the season, and Alonso is hitting just .239.

Marlins Records & Stats

Miami is 5th in the NL East, 28 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, they are 35-64 and have gone just 9-20 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are looking to bounce back after dropping the final two games of their series vs. the Phillies.

So far, Miami has been the underdog in most of their games, and they are 4-13 as the favorite this year. As for their overall series record, the Marlins are 7-21-2 and have lost two straight series.

When betting the Marlins’ run line, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog, as they are 43-39 against the run line in those games. Miami has been a run line underdog in 82% of its games, and the Marlins have covered the run line in four straight games when they are the underdog. The Marlins are just 2-15 against the run line when favored this season.

When the Miami Marlins play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. This season, the Marlins have played 16 games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, and their record in those games is 16-16. Overall, the Marlins’ games have averaged 8.5 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 52-45. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

Yonny Chirinos is getting the start for the Marlins at home against the Mets. He has started 3 games this season and has yet to pick up a win. In his last outing, he went 5 2/3 innings and took the loss vs. the Reds, giving up 7 runs, but only 1 was earned. He has 18 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings this season.

Heading into today’s game, the Marlins offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per contest. Miami’s team batting average is just 19th in the league at .234, and they are also last in the league in home runs. However, Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been bright spots in terms of power, as De La Cruz leads the team with 16 homers, and Chisholm Jr. is right behind him with 13.

Over his last six games, Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat for Miami, going 10/23 with three homers and seven RBIs. This has pushed his season average up to .237. Burger also comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak. Jonah Bride is also on a three-game hitting streak for the Marlins.