Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Prediction 7/20/24

There looks to be a chance for light rain in Minneapolis on Saturday, where the forecasted temperature is 78 degrees. The Twins and Brewers are set to face off at 7:10 PM ET at Target Field in Minneapolis. The money line odds have the Twins at -123, while the Brewers are the slight underdog at +104.

Both teams are 54-42 in the NL Central and AL Central, respectively. Milwaukee is currently in first place in the NL Central, while the Twins are second in the AL Central. On the run line, the Brewers are -205 compared to the Twins at +170. Saturday’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS MINNESOTA TWINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline +104

This game will be played at Target Field at 7:10 ET on Saturday, July 20th.

HOW TO BET THE BREWERS VS TWINS:

• We have the Brewers winning by a score of 6 to 5
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Brewers to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Brewers Records & Stats

The Brewers’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with a 9-3 win. After allowing one run to the Nationals in the top of the first, the Brewers responded with three runs of their own. Milwaukee went on to add another six runs in the 3rd inning.

Colin Rea put together a good start for the Brewers, going 8 innings and giving up just three runs on seven hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.

Milwaukee is 55-42 overall and leads the NL Central by 4.5 games over the Cardinals. The Brewers will be on the road today vs. the Twins, and they are 17-11-3 in series this year. However, they have dropped three straight series and are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Brewers are 29-17 this year and are just over .500 at 26-25 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers are 33-21 this year, and they are 22-21 as the underdog.

When the Brewers win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. That’s helped them to a 50-47 run line record on the season, including a 28-15 mark as the underdog. Their overall run differential is +0.8 runs per game, and they’ve been a solid bet on the run line on the road, going 27-24.

When the Milwaukee Brewers are on the road, the over has been a popular play this season, with a 52-41 record. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game, and their average over/under line is 8. However, when the line is set at 7.5, the over has hit at a 14-5 clip. In fact, 75.3% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5. The over has hit in their last two games.

Freddy Peralta is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Nationals, where he took the loss. In that start, he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, Peralta has finished with a no-decision, win, and a loss. His ERA for the season is 4.11, along with a record of 6-5. Peralta has made seven quality starts this year and is averaging 11.36 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall, he has 130 strikeouts, which ranks sixth in MLB. For the season, Peralta has allowed 14 homers and is averaging 3.15 walks per nine innings.

Heading into today’s game, the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .255 as a team, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Milwaukee also does a good job of getting on base, as they have the league’s best OBP at .333.

Willy Adames has been on a tear for the Brewers of late, going 9/21 in his last five games with two homers and five runs scored. Adames is already the team’s leader in homers (15) and RBIs (67) while batting just .246 for the season. William Contreras comes into the game with a batting average of .286 and is 2nd on the team with 55 RBIs.

Twins Records & Stats

The Twins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Giants with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Giants scored two runs in the bottom of the 9th. Minnesota was the +135 underdog on the road going into this matchup.

Chris Paddack put together a good start for the Twins, going five innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out six. However, the Twins couldn’t close things out, and Jhoan Duran took the loss out of the bullpen. The Twins also wasted a big game from Manuel Margot, who went 2/4 with a run scored.

Minnesota is 54-42 overall, putting them five games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Twins lost two of three in their most recent series vs. the Giants. So far, they have gone 19-13 in AL Central matchups.

At home, the Twins are 27-18 this season and have gone 27-24 on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota has gone 44-24 this season, and they are 10-18 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Twins have won two straight at home, and they are 19-10-2 in series this year.

Minnesota is a team that has been profitable on the run line this season, going 46-50 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 28-23, compared to 18-27 at home. The Twins have been a favorite in 68 games, going 31-37, while they have been an underdog in 28 games, going 15-13.

The Minnesota Twins have been a popular over pick this season, as their games have gone over the total in 47 of their 94 games. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their games have gone over the total 13 times and under 11 times. They have been in an under streak of 2 games.

Right-hander Pablo López gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Brewers at home. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with an ERA of 5.11. Lopez’s WHIP for the season is 1.18, and he has turned in eight quality starts. In his last outing, Lopez finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One positive note for Lopez is that he has a walk rate of just 1.99 per nine innings.

Carlos Correa has been one of the Twins’ top hitters this season, as he is batting .308 with a team-high 47 RBIs and 13 home runs, which is 2nd on the team and 15th in the league. Correa is also on a four-game hitting streak and has three homers in his last seven games. Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Correa are 1-2 on the team in home runs, with Jeffers also leading the team in RBIs (47).

Minnesota’s offense is 7th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game, and they have been a good home and road team in terms of scoring. Overall, they are 4th in batting average and 3rd in slugging percentage. As a team, the Twins are 5th in OPS and have the 5th best on-base percentage in the league.