New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 7/20/24
The Mets are the heavy favorite in this matchup, as they are on the money line at -172 compared to the Marlins at +145. This NL East matchup is set to get started at 4:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, and the Marlins are going with Roddery Munoz. New York is 49-47, while the Marlins are 34-63, and they have won two straight.
WPIX will be televising Saturday’s Mets vs. Marlins game, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs. This game will be played in Miami, and the Marlins are 5th in the NL East, while the Mets are 3rd.
NEW YORK METS VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK
The Pick: New York Mets Moneyline -172
This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 4:10 ET on Saturday, July 20th.
HOW TO BET THE METS VS MARLINS:
- We have the Mets winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
Miami picked up a 6-4 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a two-run lead going into the 5th inning, and the Mets could only muster two more runs in the 6th. As for the Marlins, they scored an insurance run in the 8th, and the Mets went down quietly in the 9th.
Edward Cabrera got the start for the Marlins, going just 4 2/3 innings while giving up one run and striking out five. Anthony Bender got the win out of the bullpen, and Tanner Scott got the save. Sean Manaea had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss.
Jake Burger and Nick Fortes each homered for the Marlins, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. scored three times and drove in a run while going 2/5. Jeff McNeil had a three-hit game for the Mets.
Mets Records & Stats
The Mets are 49-47 overall this season, and they are 12.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. New York lost the first two games of this series vs. the Marlins. So far, they have gone 16-13 in divisional games. The Mets have dropped two straight games overall.
At home, the Mets are 26-26 this year compared to a 23-21 mark on the road. New York has won two straight series and has an overall series record of 15-12-5 this year. As the road favorite, the Mets are 10-9 this year, and they are 30-25 when favored overall. New York’s two-game losing streak came as the favorite.
The Mets have been a solid team to bet on the run line when they are on the road, as they are 24-20 on the run line away from home. Their average run margin on the road is +0.2 runs per game. They have covered the run line in three straight road games, but they have failed to cover the run line in two straight games when they are favored.
Today, the New York Mets are on the road against the Miami Marlins. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is below the Mets’ season average of 9.7 combined runs per game. The Mets have hit the over in 52 of their 93 games this season, and they have hit the over in 16 of the 26 games where the line was set at 8.5 runs. The over has hit in each of the Mets’ last four games.
Luis Severino is looking to build off his last outing, where he faced the Nationals and picked up the win. In that July 10th start, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and four hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Severino has made 18 starts, and his record for the season is 6-3. The right-hander’s ERA is 3.77, along with a WHIP of 1.20. Opponents have a batting average of .223 off Severino this year. Out of his 18 starts, he has turned in eight quality starts. For the season, Severino has allowed 12 home runs and is averaging 6.65 strikeouts per nine innings.
As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, and they also have a collective batting average of .250, which is 6th in the league. New York’s offense has been very good at getting on base this season, as they are 6th in the league in OBP.
Brandon Nimmo has been swinging a hot bat for the Mets, as he has three homers in his last nine games and has driven in 11 runs during that stretch. However, he is batting just .237 during that time. Overall, he is hitting .248 for the season. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are the team’s top home run hitters, with 19 and 17 homers, respectively.
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is 34-63 overall and trail the Phillies by 28 games in the NL East. So far, they are just 8-19 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins have won two straight games and are 4-6 over their last 10. Miami took the series opener vs. the Mets and have an overall series record of 7-21-2 this year.
At home, the Marlins are 19-31 compared to 15-32 on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 30-50 this season, and they are 4-13 when favored. Their current home win streak is at three games, and their record as the home underdog is 15-18 this year.
The Marlins have been a profitable run line team this season, going 43-54 overall. They are 20-30 against the run line at home and 23-24 on the road. They have covered the run line in three straight games and are 41-39 as an underdog, compared to just 2-15 as a favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.6, while it drops to -3.8 in losses.
The Miami Marlins are playing host to the New York Mets today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins have played 95 games this season, and their average combined run total is 8.6 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 52-43, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 16-15. So far this season, 16 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 16.5% of their games.
Roddery Muñoz will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Astros, as he gets the start today vs. the Mets. Against the Astros, he gave up four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work, taking the loss. Looking at his overall numbers, Muñoz has made nine starts and has a record of 1-4 with an ERA of 5.47. Opponents are batting .228 off the right-hander this year. Muñoz has made two quality starts this year and is averaging 7.41 strikeouts per nine innings. His walk per nine innings figure is 4.59.
So far this season, the Marlins offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per contest. Miami’s team batting average is .234, and they have the league’s worst team ISO at .121. However, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, including Jake Burger, who is 8/17 in his last four games with two homers and six RBIs.
Bryan De La Cruz has been one of the team’s top power threats this season, as his 16 homers are the best mark on the team and 12th in the league. He also leads the Marlins with 44 RBIs. De La Cruz is batting just .240 for the season, but his on-base percentage is at .286. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 2nd on the team with 12 homers and is batting .251.