Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Prediction 7/5/24

There appears to be a chance for light rain in Minneapolis on Friday, where the forecasted temperature is 76 degrees. The Twins and Astros will face off at 8:10 PM ET at Target Field in Minneapolis, and both teams are 2-3 in their last five games.

Friday’s money line odds have the Twins favored at -159, while the Astros are at +135. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and tonight’s pitching matchup features Shawn Dubin for the Astros and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. Lopez has a 2.98 ERA this season, while Dubin will be making his MLB debut.

HOUSTON ASTROS VS MINNESOTA TWINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline +135

This game will be played at Target Field at 8:10 ET on Friday, July 5th.

HOW TO BET THE ASTROS VS TWINS:

• We have the Astros winning by a score of 6 to 5
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Astros to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Astros Records & Stats

Houston closed out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a 5-3 win on the road. Heading into the game, the Astros were the slight favorite at -113 on the money line. It was a big three-run 1st inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Blue Jays could only score three runs, all of which came in the 3rd.

Framber Valdez put together a good start for the Astros, going six innings and giving up just three earned runs, and picking up the win. Houston’s offense was carried by Jeremy Pena, who went 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.

Houston is on the road today, taking on the Twins with an overall record of 45-42, which has them 2nd in the AL West. They are two games behind the Mariners for the division lead. The Astros closed out their series vs. the Blue Jays with two straight wins and won the series 3-1.

As the road underdog, the Astros are 8-7 this season and have an overall road record of 21-23. They have been good at closing out series, as they have won six straight series and are 16-11-1 overall.

When it comes to the run line, the Astros have been a .500 team on the road, going 22-22. They have covered the run line in six straight road games and are 13-8 as an underdog this season.

The Houston Astros have an over/under record of 33-50 this season and have a combined run average of 9.0 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Astros are 4-7-2. Overall, 66.7% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, with the average line being set at 9 runs per game.

Houston is sending right-hander Shawn Dubin to the mound today as he faces the Twins on the road. Dubin has made one start and 15 appearances this season. His record is 1-1, and he has an ERA of 4.91. Opponents are batting .271 this season off Dubin. In his last outing, he went 3 1/3 innings, giving up no earned runs and coming away with a no-decision. Looking back over his last three outings, Dubin has given up just one earned run in each appearance. So far, he has done a good job of limiting the damage, as he has yet to give up more than two earned runs in an outing.

Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have been the Astros’ top power threats this season, as they are both tied for the team lead with 19 home runs. Alvarez is also batting .302, while Tucker comes in with a batting average of .266. Over his last nine games, Alvarez has gone 13/30 with three homers and eight RBIs. Tucker is currently on a three-game hitting streak.

As a team, the Astros are the top hitting team in the league, with a batting average of .264. They also have the fewest strikeouts in the league and are 7th in home runs. Overall, the Astros are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. At home, they are averaging 5.1 runs per contest.

Twins Records & Stats

Ryan Jeffers and the Twins’s offense is coming off a big game to close out their series vs. the Tigers. Jeffers went 3/4 with a homer and four RBIs. The Twins really broke things open with a seven-run 3rd inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Twins were at -181 at home.

Bailey Ober started for the Twins, going six innings and giving up just one run on seven hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.

Minnesota will take on the Astros at home today with an overall record of 49-38, which has them six games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 17-12 in divisional matchups. The Twins have won four straight series, and they are 17-9-2 in series this year.

At home, the Twins have gone 25-17 this year compared to 24-21 on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota is 40-21 this year and 21-14 as the favorite at home. They have been the underdog 26 times this year, putting together a record of 9-17.

Minnesota has been a solid run line team this season, going 42-45. They have been slightly better on the road, going 25-20, compared to 17-25 at home. The Twins have been favored in 61 games, going 29-32 on the run line, while they have been the underdog in 26 games, going 13-13. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.7, while it is -3.6 in losses.

Minnesota’s over/under record is 43-42 on the season, and their games have averaged a combined 9.2 runs per game. The over has hit in four straight games for the Twins, and when the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone 6-11-2. So far this season, 41.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, and the average line for their games this season has been set at 8 runs.

Pablo López has been pitching well for the Twins, coming into the game with a record of 8-6 and an ERA of 4.88. He has made eight quality starts this year and is averaging 10.53 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, López picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had not allowed a homer in three straight outings. López has been much better on the road, with a record of 5-3 and an ERA of 5.82 compared to 3-3 with a 5.64 ERA at home.

Minnesota’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, as they are 7th in the league in runs per game at 4.9. The Twins are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and have the 4th best isolated power (ISO) in the league. So far, they have been a good home and road team, averaging 4.7 and 5 runs per game, respectively.

Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers have been the top power threats in the Twins lineup, with Santana’s 12 homers being 2nd on the team and Jeffers’ 14 leading the team. Jeffers also comes into the game on an 8-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 11/24. Jose Miranda has also been hot of late, going 11/24 in his last six games.