Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction 6/24/24
At 9:40 PM ET, the Nationals and Padres square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -221. The money line odds for a Nationals win are at +183, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Patrick Corbin is starting for the Nationals, and he is facing off against Matt Waldron. Corbin has a record of 38-39, while the Padres are 41-41 overall. Washington is 3rd in the NL East, and the Padres are 2nd in the NL West. MASN will be televising Monday’s game.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING PICK
The Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs
This game will be played at PETCO Park at 9:40 ET on Monday, June 24th.
HOW TO BET THE NATIONALS VS PADRES:
- We have the Padres winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Nationals to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Nationals Records & Stats
Washington closed out their series vs. the Rockies with a 2-1 win on the road. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -134 on the money line. It was a good start for the Nationals, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Rockies scored in the bottom of the second.
Jake Irvin put together a good start for the Nationals, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Washington’s offense scored their only other run in the 9th inning to close things out. Jacob Young went 2/3 with a run scored.
Washington is 38-39 overall and trails the Phillies by 13 games in the NL East. The Nationals are 14-10 against other teams in the NL East. They will be on the road today to take on the Padres, and they are 2 games under .500 on the road (21-20). At home, the Nationals are 17-19 this season.
As the road underdog, the Nationals have gone 17-18 this year, and they are 30-33 as the underdog overall. Washington has been good in close games, putting together an 18-10 record in one-run games. Their overall series record is 11-13-1, and they have won two straight series on the road.
When the Nationals win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.3 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.5 runs per game. Washington is 46-31 against the run line this season, including a 26-15 mark on the road. They have been an underdog in 63 games and have gone 39-24 against the run line in those contests.
Washington’s over/under record for the season is 34-40, and the average over/under line in their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 11-14. Overall, 24 of their games have had higher lines than 8.5 runs, which accounts for 31.2% of their games. Their combined run average per game is 8.3 runs.
Washington is sending left-hander Patrick Corbin to the mound today as he faces the Padres on the road. Corbin has made 15 starts this season and has a record of 1-7 with an ERA of 5.60. Looking at his overall numbers, Corbin has a WHIP of 1.60 and opponents are batting .294 this season. In his last outing, Corbin finished with a no-decision, giving up one earned run in five innings of work. He pitched well in that outing, as he didn’t give up a homer. Before that, he had given up a homer in three straight outings.
So far this season, the Nationals offense has been one of the worst in the league, as they are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. This has been the case both at home and on the road. As a team, they are batting just .236 (16th) and have the league’s 21st ranked slugging percentage. One area where they have been good is avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 7th fewest strikeouts in the league.
CJ Abrams has been the Nationals’ top power threat this season, as his 12 homers are 13th in the league and lead the team. Abrams is also batting .270 for the season. Jesse Winker and Lane Thomas are 2nd and 3rd on the team in RBIs and have 8 homers apiece. Winker has gone deep twice over his last five games but is just 3/13 in that stretch.
Padres Records & Stats
The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Brewers with a 6-2 loss. San Diego was the -139 favorite at home going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Brewers scored five times in the 2nd.
Michael King took the loss for the Padres, going six innings and giving up five earned runs on nine hits. Luis Arraez was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a run scored. The Padres’s other run came in the 5th inning.
With an overall record of 41-41, the Padres are 8.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Diego will host the Nationals today, with an overall division record of 14-15. The Padres closed out their series vs. the Brewers with a win and took the series 3-1.
At home, the Padres are 21-22 this season compared to 20-19 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 50 of their games, going 26-24 in those matchups. As for their games as the underdog, the Padres are 15-17 this year. The Padres’ overall series record is 14-10-3, and they are currently 4-6 in their last 10 games.
San Diego has been a strong run line team this season, going 42-40 overall, but they have been much better on the road, going 27-12. They have an average run margin of +0.2 runs per game this season, and their run line record as the underdog is 22-10. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while it is -3.3 in losing games.
San Diego has been playing in high-scoring games lately, with their last four games all going over the total. The Padres have gone over the total in 42 of their 81 games this season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 42-39, and their games have had an average total of 8 runs per game.
So far this season, Matt Waldron has made 15 starts and has a record of 5-6. His ERA for the season is 3.46, along with a WHIP of 1.16. Waldron’s last outing came on June 19th, where he picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four outings, he has given up no more than two earned runs in any of them. At home, Waldron is 2-4 with a 4.92 ERA, compared to 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA on the road.
Over the last seven games, Jackson Merrill has been hot for the Padres, hitting 3 home runs while going 9/25 overall. Manny Machado has also been swinging a hot bat, going 11/28 with a homer in this stretch. Jake Cronenworth and Fernando Tatis Jr. have been the Padres’ top power threats this season, with Cronenworth’s 12 homers being 2nd on the team and Tatis Jr.’s 14 leading the club.
As a team, the Padres are 2nd in the league in batting average and have been one of the better home run hitting teams in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.5 runs per game, and are 7th in the league in home runs. San Diego’s team on-base percentage of .325 is 4th in the league.