Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 5/10/24

At 7:10 PM from loanDepot Park in Miami, we have an NL East matchup between the Phillies and Marlins. Heading into Friday’s game, the Phillies have the best record in the National League at 26-12, while the Marlins are just 10-29 overall. Philadelphia is the heavy favorite on the money line at -203.

The over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and tonight’s pitching matchup features Ranger Suarez for the Phillies up against Trevor Rogers for the Marlins. If you’re looking to catch this one on TV, it is being carried by BSFL.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs

This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, May 10th.

HOW TO BET THE PHILLIES VS MARLINS:

• We have the Phillies winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Phillies Records & Stats

The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a 5-3 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Blue Jays scored three runs in the top of the 8th. Philadelphia was the -174 favorite at home going into the game.

Aaron Nola got the start for the Phillies and took the loss. He only lasted 5 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on nine hits. Nick Castellanos was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a run scored. The Phillies also had a big 3rd inning, with Bryson Stott driving in two runs with a double.

Philadelphia is on the road today to take on the Marlins, and they lead the NL East by two games over the Braves. Overall, the Phillies are 26-12 and have gone 3-3 in divisional games. The Phillies have won two straight games and are 8-2 over their last 10.

At home, the Phillies have been good, going 15-7, and they are 11-5 on the road. So far, they have been really good as the favorite, putting up a mark of 22-9. As the underdog, the Phillies are 4-3 this year. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 7-2-3 and have won two straight series on the road.

The Phillies have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 19-19 overall. They are 9-7 against the run line on the road, where they have an average run margin of +1.4. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 4-3 against the run line, compared to 15-16 as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.8, while it drops to -3.9 in losses.

When the Phillies are involved in games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the under has gone 7-2 this season. Overall, the Phillies have played in 26 games with higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and 68.4% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. Their combined run average on the season is 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 17-19.

Ranger Suárez has been dominant this season, coming into the game with a record of 6-0 and an ERA of 1.72. He has made a total of seven starts and has one complete game shutout. In his last outing, Suárez went six innings, giving up three earned runs, and got the win. Before that, he had gone at least seven innings without giving up an earned run in three straight outings. Suárez has been especially tough on the road, with a record of 3-0 and an ERA of 1.38 compared to 2.48 at home.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offensive teams, as they are 5th in runs per game (5) and are 5th in home runs. The Phillies have been even better at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .257, which is the 4th best mark in the league.

Over his last 10 games, Bryce Harper has gone 9/32 with three homers and 10 RBIs. Harper is 4th in the league with nine home runs. Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber are also tied for the team lead with nine homers. Bohm’s 32 RBIs are the best mark in the league, and he is batting .346 for the season.

Marlins Records & Stats

Miami closed out their series vs. the Dodgers with a 3-1 loss. Heading into the game, the Marlins were the heavy underdog at +218. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with a run in the 4th inning but gave up the lead right away as the Dodgers scored two runs in the bottom of the 4th.

Ryan Weathers put together a good start for the Marlins, going six innings and giving up just three runs on five hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and took the loss. Miami’s offense scored their only run on a homer from Bryan De La Cruz but wasted several other good scoring opportunities.

Miami is hosting the Phillies today with an overall record of 10-29, 16.5 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 1-9. The Marlins have dropped three straight games, and they lost the final game of their series vs. the Dodgers.

At home, the Marlins are just 5-15 this year, compared to 5-14 on the road. So far, they have been the underdog in most of their games, and they are just 3-11 as the favorite. Miami has an overall series record of 1-10-1 this year.

As a run line bettor, you may want to avoid the Marlins. They are 11-28 on the run line this season, including a 4-16 mark at home. Miami has been the favorite in 14 games and has failed to cover the run line in all but one of those contests. Their average run differential in losses is -3.9 runs per game.

When the Miami Marlins have played games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season, the over has hit in five of seven games. Their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game this season, and their overall over/under record is 22-17. The Marlins have played 31 games with higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs this season, which is 79.5% of their games.

Trevor Rogers gets the start for the Marlins today and is looking to pick up his first win of the season. So far, he has made seven starts and has a record of 0-5. Rogers’ ERA is 6.15, and he has a WHIP of 1.72. In his last outing, he gave up eight earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last three starts, Rogers has given up at least three earned runs in each outing. The left-hander has allowed a total of four homers this season.

Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are 25th in the league in runs per game at 3.7. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4 runs per contest. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, OPS, and isolated power. As a team, they are batting just .225.

Bryan De La Cruz and Nick Gordon have both been swinging the bat well of late, with De La Cruz batting .308 over his last seven games with three homers, and Gordon has gone 6/19 in his last six games. De La Cruz is also on a five-game hitting streak and is the team’s current leader in homers (8) and RBIs (21).