San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Prediction 5/5/24

At 4:10 PM from Chase Field in Phoenix, we have an NL West matchup between the Padres and Diamondbacks. San Diego comes into the game with a record of 18-18, while the Diamondbacks are 14-20. The over/under line is at 9.5 runs, and the Padres are the slight favorite on the money line (-101).

Looking at Sunday’s starting pitching matchup, we have Matt Waldron going for the Padres and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. You can catch this one on TV on MLB Network.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline -119

This game will be played at Chase Field at 4:10 ET on Sunday, May 5th.

HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS DIAMONDBACKS:

• We have the Diamondbacks winning by a score of 6 to 5
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Diamondbacks to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

San Diego cruised to an easy 13-1 win over the Diamondbacks in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 7th inning, scoring eight of their thirteen runs. As for the Diamondbacks, their only run came in the 9th inning.

Michael King started for the Padres and went six innings while giving up just one run and striking out three. He picked up a win in the game, while Brandon Pfaadt got the loss for Arizona, going six innings and giving up three earned runs.

Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim each homered for the Padres. Profar, Luis Arraez, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth each had two RBIs.

Padres Records & Stats

San Diego is currently 2nd in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by 4.5 games. The Padres are at an even 18-18 overall, and they have won four straight games. These four wins have come after dropping four straight, so they are looking to keep things rolling today on the road vs. the Diamondbacks.

At home, the Padres are just 8-12 this year, but they have been better on the road at 10-6. As the road favorite, the Padres are 4-2 this year, and they have won two straight as the road favorite. San Diego’s overall series record is 5-5-2, and they are 5-5 over their last ten games.

The Padres have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 19-17 overall. They have been especially strong on the run line on the road, going 13-3. Their average run margin in winning games is +4.0, while it’s -3.0 in losses. They have covered the run line in their last two road games and are 10-12 on the run line as the favorite this season.

San Diego’s over/under record for the season is 19-16, and the average combined run total in their games is 9.7. The over/under line for today’s game against the Diamondbacks is set at 9.5 runs, and when the line has been set at 9.5 runs this season, the over has hit in one out of one game. Overall, the Padres have played in just three games this season with an over/under line set at 9.5 runs, accounting for just 8.3% of their games.

San Diego is sending right-hander Matt Waldron to the mound today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. Waldron has made six starts this year and has a record of 1-3 with an ERA of 4.36. Looking at his overall numbers, he has a WHIP of 1.35 and opponents are batting .250 this year. In his last outing, Waldron took the loss, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had picked up the win and didn’t allow a homer in three straight outings. So far, he has given up four homers.

So far this season, the Padres have been one of the league’s best offensive teams, as they are 5th in scoring at 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are 3rd in team batting average (.258) and 5th in home runs. San Diego also has a good team on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar have been two of the Padres’ top hitters of late, with Cronenworth batting .385 with three homers in his last six games, and Profar has gone 13/23 in his last six games. Cronenworth’s eight-game hitting streak is the longest on the team. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the team’s home run leader, but he is batting just .245 for the season.

Diamondbacks Records & Stats

Arizona is at home today, looking to pick up a win vs. the Padres and move to 15-20 overall. The Diamondbacks are currently 4th in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by 7.5 games. So far, they have gone 8-8 in divisional matchups. Arizona has dropped three straight games, and they are 3-7 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Diamondbacks are 2-5 as the underdog this season and 8-10 overall. On the road, they are 6-10 and 6-12 as the underdog. Arizona’s overall series record is 3-6-1, and they have dropped three straight series.

The Diamondbacks are 15-19 against the run line this season, including an 8-10 mark at home. They have lost three straight at home against the run line and are 6-10 vs. the run line as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +5.3, while it is -3.7 in losses.

Arizona’s over/under record for the season is 14-19, and the average over/under line for their games is 9.0 runs. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 2-3. Overall, 67.6% of their games have had lower over/under lines than 9.5 runs. In their most recent games, the over/under results have been as follows: 14 runs (over 8.5), 8 runs (under 9.0), 8 runs (under 8.5), 7 runs (under 9.5), and 12 runs (over 10.5).

Ryne Nelson has had a bit of an up-and-down start to the season, but he is coming off a win in his last start. He went 6 innings and struck out 4 in that outing, and he has 11 strikeouts on the year. Nelson has given up 2 home runs in his 3 starts.

Christian Walker has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Diamondbacks, going 7/23 in his last seven games with three homers and five RBIs. Overall, he is batting .270 with a team-high seven homers and 22 RBIs, which is 8th in the MLB. Ketel Marte is also among the league’s top home run hitters, as his five homers are 6th in the league and 2nd on the team. Marte has also been swinging a hot bat, as he is batting .308 and is currently on a six-game hitting streak.

As a team, the Diamondbacks are 8th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game, and they have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts and are 5th in walks. Their team batting average is .245 (8th) and they are 8th in on-base percentage.