New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick & Prediction 5/5/24

At 1:40 PM ET, the Mets and Rays will face off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, and the Rays are sending Ryan Pepiot to the mound vs. Luis Severino for the Mets. New York comes in with a record of 16-17, while the Rays are 16-18.

Tampa Bay is the favorite on the money line at -125, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. If you’re looking to watch this game on TV, it is being carried by SNY.

TAMPA BAY RAYS VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline -125

This game will be played at Tropicana Field at 1:40 ET on Sunday, May 5th.

HOW TO BET THE METS VS RAYS:

• We have the Rays winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Mets to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Tampa Bay picked up a 3-1 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a huge 8th inning, scoring two of their three runs and picking up a 3-1 win. Heading into the game, the Rays were favored at -108 on the money line.

Zack Littell started for the Rays and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but didn’t issue a walk. Christian Scott got the start for the Mets and took the loss, giving up one run in 6 2/3 innings of work.

At the plate, the Rays were led by Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz, and Ben Rortvedt, as they were the only three Rays hitters to have more than one hit. Paredes and Diaz each drove in a run. For the Mets, Starling Marte went 2/3 with an RBI.

Mets Records & Stats

The Mets are on the road today vs. the Rays, and they are looking to get back to .500, as they are currently 16-17 overall. New York has dropped two straight games, and they are 6.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they are 2-1 in divisional games.

At home, the Mets are 9-10 this year, and they are 7-7 on the road. As the underdog, the Mets have dropped six straight games, and they are 5-6 as the road underdog this year. New York’s overall series record is 5-4-1, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.

When the Mets are on the road, they have a run line record of 8-6, which is a winning percentage of 57.1%. Their average run margin in those games is +0.3, which is slightly better than their overall average run margin of +0.1. They have been favored in 19 of those games and have gone 8-11 against the run line in those contests. They are currently on a two-game run line losing streak on the road.

With a combined run average of 8.6, the Mets have had a lot of high-scoring games this season, but their over/under record is just 16-17. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 4-5, and they have had 19 games with higher lines than that. So far, 57.6% of their games have had higher lines than 7.5 runs.

Luis Severino has made six starts this season and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 2.31. So far, he has made three quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he went eight innings and gave up just one earned run. In that outing, he finished with a no-decision. This season, Severino has a BB/9 figure of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.06. Opposing batters are hitting .198 this season off Severino. His ERA on the road is 3.15, and he has a record of 0-1 away from home.

So far this season, the Mets have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per game compared to just 3.6 runs per game at home. Overall, they are 17th in the league at 4.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .237, which is 12th in the league, and are 9th in home runs.

Brandon Nimmo is currently on a three-game hitting streak and is the Mets’ top run producer this season, with 20 RBIs. He is also 8th in the league in home runs. Pete Alonso has gone deep a team-high eight times but is batting just .214. Shortstop Francisco Lindor and right fielder Starling Marte are also looking to get their batting averages up, as Lindor is hitting .202 and Marte is at .275.

Rays Records & Stats

Tampa Bay is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 16-18, and they are 5th in the AL East, 6.5 games behind the Orioles for the division lead. The Rays have won two straight games, and they are looking to pick up some ground in the division, as they are just 3-4 in AL East matchups this year.

At home, the Rays are 10-9 this year and 6-9 on the road. So far, they have struggled as the favorite, going 11-14, but they are 5-4 as the underdog. Tampa Bay has won three straight games at home, and their overall series record is 3-5-2, and they have lost four straight series.

When the Tampa Bay Rays are at home, they are 7-12 against the run line, which is the lowest percentage in the league. Overall, they are 13-21 against the run line. The Rays have a run differential of -1.1 runs per game, and they have been outscored by an average of 0.9 runs per game at home. They have covered the run line in three straight games at home, and they are 6-9 against the run line on the road.

With an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets combined for just four runs in their most recent meeting. The under has hit in five of the Rays’ seven games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season.

Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today and is coming off a strong outing against the Brewers. In that April 29th outing, he went six innings, didn’t give up a run, and got the win. Looking at his overall numbers, Pepiot has made six starts, and opponents are batting .161 this season. His ERA is 3.12, and he has a record of 3-2. Four of his six outings have been quality starts, and his ERA at home is 4.93 compared to 0.0 on the road.

So far this season, the Rays offense is averaging 3.9 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 10th in the league, and have been good at putting the ball in play, as they have the 6th best BABIP in the league. However, their team isolated power of .113 is just 24th in the league.

Isaac Paredes has been one of the Rays’ top hitters this season, batting .293 with a team-high seven home runs. He has also driven in 18 runs, which is 12th in the league. Paredes has also been hot of late, going 8/23 in his last six games. Amed Rosario is also swinging a hot bat, as he is batting .309 for the season and has gone 3/14 in his last five games.