Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Prediction 4/22/24

Monday’s matchup between the Brewers and Pirates is set for 6:40 PM from PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are the slight favorite at -128 on the money line, and the over/under line is sitting at 8 runs. Milwaukee comes in with a record of 14-6, while the Pirates are at 11-11.

Joe Ross is starting for the Brewers, and he is facing off against Jared Jones for the Pirates. Looking at the Brewers’ stats, they are averaging 5.3 runs per game and are giving up 4.2 runs per game. As for the Pirates, they are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline -128

This game will be played at PNC Park at 6:40 ET on Monday, April 22nd.

HOW TO BET THE BREWERS VS PIRATES:

• We have the Pirates winning by a score of 6 to 5
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Brewers to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Brewers Records & Stats

Heading into their last game vs. the Cardinals, the Brewers closed out the series with a 2-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at +139. Offensively, the Brewers only had six hits but scored just two runs. Both of their runs came in the 7th inning. Brice Turang and Willy Adames each had two hits. Turang also scored a run and Adames had a double.

Colin Rea got the start for the Brewers, going five innings, and didn’t give up a run. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and got the win.

Milwaukee heads into today’s game in 1st place in the NL Central, leading the Cubs by 2 games. The Brewers are on a 4-game winning streak, closing out their series with the Cardinals with a win. This season, the Brewers are 14-6.

On the road, the Brewers have been excellent so far, putting together a record of 10-2. And when coming into a game as the underdog, Milwaukee is 8-1 this season. Their overall series record is 5-1-1.

When the Brewers are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 9-3 so far this season. They have covered in two straight games and have been a good bet as the underdog, going 8-3 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while it is -2.8 in losses.

With an average combined run total of 9.6 runs per game this season, the Milwaukee Brewers have seen their games go over the over/under line in 13 of their 20 games. The over/under line for today’s game against the Pittsburgh Pirates is set at 8 runs, which is right around the Brewers’ average line for the season. In games with an over/under line of 8 runs, the Brewers’ games have gone over the line just once in their last 14 games.

Joe Ross and the Brewers are on the road to take on the Pirates today. Ross is coming off of a loss in his last start, where he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up 6 runs on 9 hits. He did strike out 7, but he gave up a pair of home runs.

Our projections for the Brewers’ offense today have Gary Sánchez as our top home run candidate, with the 4th highest home run projection in today’s entire league. Rhys Hoskins is our 2nd best home run candidate on the team, and 6th in the league today. William Contreras has the best overall hits projection on the team, and his home run projection is 12th in the league today. Sal Frelick is 2nd on the team in terms of hits, and 18th in the league in terms of home run projections.

Pirates Records & Stats

The Pirates will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Red Sox with a 6-1 loss. This was especially tough, as it was their third straight loss. Pittsburgh was the -155 favorite at home going into the game but fell behind early, as the Red Sox scored two runs in the 3rd.

Martin Perez took the loss for the Pirates, going only four innings and giving up four earned runs on six hits. The Pirates also issued four walks in the game and hit a batter. Ke’Bryan Hayes scored the team’s only run, going 2/3 at the plate.

The Pirates will be looking to move above .500 today, as they come into the game with an 11-11 record. Currently, they are on a six-game losing streak. In the NL Central, they are 4th, four games behind the Brewers.

At home, the Pirates are 3-5 this season and 8-6 on the road. Pittsburgh has lost four straight games as the favorite and are 2-5 when favored this season. As the underdog, they are 9-6.

When the Pirates win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 3.3. When they lose, it’s usually by a wide margin, with an average run differential of -3.5. Overall, their average run differential is -0.1, and their run line record is 12-10. They have been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 9-5, but have struggled at home, going 3-5. They have also lost four straight games against the run line at home and are just 2-5 as the favorite.

Despite the Pirates’ over/under record of 12-10, the over has hit in just three of their last five games. The O/U line for today’s game against the Brewers is set at 8 runs, which is right in line with their season average of 8 runs per game. The Pirates have played in 14 games with O/U lines set higher than 8 runs, and the over has hit in just three of those contests. Their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, which is slightly higher than the league average.

Jared Jones is getting the start for the Pirates today, as they host the Brewers. Jones has started 3 games this season, and he has a win, a loss, and a no-decision. His last time out, he went 5 innings and struck out 7 batters while only giving up 1 hit. In his first start, he went 6 1/3 innings and struck out 8 but gave up 6 runs.

For the Pirates, we have Oneil Cruz as our top projected hitter in terms of total hits and home runs. His home run projection is 5th best in today’s slate of games. Ke’Bryan Hayes is 13th in terms of total hits in today’s games, and his home run projection is 11th. Bryan Reynolds has the 2nd best total hits projection and 2nd best home run projection on the team.