Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Prediction 4/21/24

At 2:20 PM from Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have an NL matchup between the Marlins and Cubs. Heading into Sunday’s game, the Marlins are 5-17 compared to the Cubs at 13-8. Chicago is the favorite on the money line at -131, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.

Edward Cabrera is starting for the Marlins, and he is facing off against Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs. You can catch this one on BSFL.

CHICAGO CUBS VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline -131

This game will be played at Wrigley Field at 2:20 ET on Sunday, April 21st.

HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS CUBS:

• We have the Cubs winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Chicago picked up a 5-3 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had a huge 6th inning, scoring four of their five runs. As for the Marlins, they scored two of their three runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Cubs were favored at -226 on the money line.

Shota Imanaga got the win for the Cubs, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued one walk. Héctor Neris got the save. Anthony Bender took the loss for Miami, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work.

Josh Bell hit the game’s only home run while going 2/4 with two RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Cody Bellinger did a bit of everything for the Cubs, going 1/4 with a homer and two RBIs.

Marlins Records & Stats

Miami is currently on the road and will be looking to improve upon their overall record of 5-17 today. In the NL East, they are in 5th place and trail the Braves by 10.5 games. So far, they have yet to win a series, going 0-6.

When playing at home, the Marlins are 2-11 compared to 3-6 on the road. Miami finally picked up a win as the road team in their most recent game vs. the Cubs. This came after dropping four straight on the road.

The Marlins have been a tough team to bet on this season, as they have a run line record of 7-15. They have been slightly better on the road, going 4-5 against the run line, compared to 3-10 at home. As the underdog, they have been a solid bet, going 7-8 against the run line. Their average run margin is -1.9 runs per game, but when they win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.6 runs per game.

The Miami Marlins have gone under the total in their last two games, and their over/under record for the season is 12-10. Their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game, and their average over/under line for the season has been 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over the total in 7 of 12 games. So far this season, 27.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.

Edward Cabrera will be making his second start of the season for the Marlins, and this time he is on the road to take on the Cubs. In his first start of the year, he went 6 innings and struck out 10 batters, but he did give up 5 hits and 1 home run.

Our model is favoring Luis Arraez to have a big game at the plate for the Marlins, giving him the highest hits projection on the team and in the league today. If you’re looking for a long shot bet, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has the top home run projection on the Marlins and the 9th best in today’s slate of games. Josh Bell is also a good bet to go deep, as his home run projection is 10th best in today’s games.

Cubs Records & Stats

After taking the series opener vs the Marlins, the Cubs dropped the final game of the series, putting them at 13-8 for the season. In the NL Central, they are just one game behind the Brewers, as the Cubs hold the 2nd place in the division heading into today’s game.

Looking at Chicago’s overall series record, they have gone 4-2 so far. This includes having won each of their last two series. At home, they are 7-2 compared to 6-6 on the road, and they have been good in day games, going 8-3.

Chicago has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 15-6 overall. They have been especially good at home, going 6-3 on the run line. The Cubs have an average run margin of +1.0 runs per game this season. They have been a good bet on the run line as the underdog, going 10-4, and have covered the run line in 9 of 12 road games.

The Chicago Cubs have had a combined run average of 10.0 in their games this season, but their over/under record is just 10-11. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 3-3. Overall, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs in just 23.8% of their games, and their under streak is at 2 games.

Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs are at home today, taking on the Marlins. Hendricks has started 3 games this season and has yet to pick up a win. In his last start, he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs. He has 3 walks and 2 home runs allowed in his 3 starts.

The Cubs have a few players with strong projections today. Nico Hoerner is not only our top projected hitter for the Cubs, but his total hits projection is 4th best in the league. Michael Busch has the 2nd best home run projection in the league today, and Cody Bellinger has the 8th best home run projection in today’s slate.