Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Prediction 4/11/24
The Brewers will be sending Freddy Peralta to the mound on Thursday vs. Nick Martinez and a Reds team that is 6-6. Milwaukee comes in with an overall record of 8-3. This NL Central matchup can be caught on BSOH, with the first pitch being set for 1:10 at Great American Ball Park. The Brewers are currently the favorite on the money line at -126.
As for the Reds, their money line odds are at +105 with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The forecast is calling for heavy rain in Cincinnati, with a forecasted temperature of 60 degrees. The Brewers are currently averaging 5.36 runs per game compared to the Reds at 3.67.
CINCINNATI REDS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline +105
This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 1:10 ET on Thursday, April 11th.
HOW TO BET THE BREWERS VS REDS:
- We have the Reds winning by a score of 6 to 5
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Reds to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
The Brewers took down the Reds in the previous game of this series by a score of 7-2. Despite being on the road, Milwaukee came into the game as the underdog at +120. The two home runs hit by the Brewers were more than enough offense, as the Reds only crossed the plate one time outside of Elly De La Cruz’s solo home run.
Hunter Greene got the start for the Reds and took the loss, giving up six earned runs on six hits. He did strikeout nine batters, but it wasn’t enough to keep up with the Brewers’ offense. On the other side, Bryse Wilson got the win, while Wade Miley started the game and gave up just one earned run in four innings of work.
Milwaukee’s offense got off to a hot start, scoring two runs in the 1st inning and three more in the 2nd. Christian Yelich and Blake Perkins both went deep, while three different Brewers hitters drove in two runs apiece.
Brewers Records & Stats
The Brewers are currently on the road to face the Reds, and they have a record of 8-3. They are currently 0.5 games behind the Pirates for the top spot in the NL Central, and they have gone 2-1 against divisional opponents so far this season.
So far this season, the Brewers have been excellent on the road, going 5-1. They have also been great during the day, going 7-1, and have won two straight games overall.
When it comes to the run line, the Brewers have been a solid bet overall, going 6-5 on the season. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 5-1 against the run line. In their last two road games, they have covered the run line. As the underdog, they are 5-1 against the run line this season.
The Milwaukee Brewers have been on a four-game over streak, and their games have averaged 10.3 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 7-4, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 3-2. The Brewers have had two games with higher lines than 8.5 runs, and their games have gone over the line 36.4% of the time when the line is set at 8.5 runs.
Freddy Peralta and the Brewers are on the road to take on the Reds today. Peralta has been sharp in his first two starts of the season, picking up a win in his first outing, and then going 5 2/3 innings in his last start, giving up 3 runs and striking out 7.
Our model is projecting William Contreras to have the best day at the plate for the Brewers, as his total hits projection is 5th best in the league today. Rhys Hoskins has the best odds to hit a home run for Milwaukee, as his home run projection is 7th best in the league. Christian Yelich has the 2nd best total hits projection on the team and 3rd best odds to hit a home run.
Reds Records & Stats
Despite their recent struggles, the Reds are still right in the mix in the NL Central. They are currently in 4th place in the division, three games behind the Brewers. Cincinnati is 6-6 on the season and has gone 1-2 against divisional opponents so far.
The Reds have not played well at home, going just 4-5. They have also lost two straight games at home and are just 1-1 as home underdogs this season.
The Reds have been a tough team to gauge on the run line this season, as they are just 5-7 overall. They have been a bit better on the road, going 2-1, compared to 3-6 at home. They have been an underdog in five games and a favorite in seven, going 3-2 in the former and 2-5 in the latter. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.0, while it is -3.0 in their losses.
The Reds have been a consistent over team this season, with a 9-3 over/under record. Their games have averaged 10.5 runs per game, and their over/under line for the season has averaged 9 runs per game. The over has hit in three straight games, and in seven of their 12 games this season, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs.
Nick Martinez is making his 3rd start of the season for the Reds, and he will be at home against the Brewers. In his first two starts, he has gone 5 innings in each, and he has given up 3 earned runs in each outing. He has 6 strikeouts in 10 innings of work so far.
Our model is projecting a strong offensive performance from the Reds today, with Jonathan India leading the way. India’s total hits projection is 12th best in the league today, and he has the 11th best odds to hit a home run. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is our top projected hitter in terms of total hits, and he has the 7th best odds to hit a home run. Will Benson is 11th in the league in terms of odds to hit a home run, and his total hits projection is 2nd best on the team.