New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Prediction 4/11/24

There is expected to be some light rain in Atlanta today as the Mets face the Braves at Truist Park. The first pitch is set for 12:20, and the temperature is supposed to be in the low 60s. The Braves come into the game with a record of 7-3 compared to the Mets at 4-7. You can find this NL East matchup on BSSO.

Looking at the forecast, it appears that the rain should be clearing up by the early afternoon. The over/under line for the game is sitting at 9.5 runs, with Jose Quintana starting for the Mets up against Allan Winans for the Braves, who are favored at -172 on the money line.

ATLANTA BRAVES VS NEW YORK METS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline -172

This game will be played at Truist Park at 12:20 ET on Thursday, April 11th.

HOW TO BET THE METS VS BRAVES:

• We have the Braves winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Mets to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the under

The Braves and Mets played a close game in the last matchup of this series, with the Braves pulling out a 6-5 win at home. Despite being outhit 12-11, the Braves were able to do enough to get the win. The Mets hit one more home run than the Braves, but Atlanta had one more double.

Neither team scored more than one run in an inning until the 8th, when the Mets put up three runs to tie the game. The Braves had a chance to win it in the 9th, but the Mets tied it up again before the Braves finally won it in the 9th.

Reynaldo Lopez got the start for Atlanta and didn’t give up a run in his six innings of work. Raisel Iglesias picked up the save, while Adrian Houser took the loss for the Mets, giving up five runs in five innings. Pete Alonso hit one of the Mets’ homers and finished with three RBIs.

Mets Records & Stats

After taking the first game of the series vs. the Braves, the Mets have dropped two in a row and are now 4-7 overall. They are currently in 4th place in the NL East, 3.5 games behind the Braves for the division lead. In the division, they are 1-1.

Overall, the Mets have a losing record at home but have been better on the road, going 3-2. They have been a better team as an underdog compared to being the favorite, going 2-2 as the underdog and 2-5 as the favorite.

When the Mets are on the road, they have a run line record of 4-1, and they have covered the run line in their last three road games. They are 3-1 against the run line as the underdog, but just 1-6 when favored. Their average run differential in their wins is +1.2, while it is -2.6 in their losses.

Today’s over/under line of 9.5 runs for the Mets-Braves game is the highest of the season for New York, as their games have averaged just 8.1 runs per game. The Mets have gone over the total in five of their 11 games this season, including their last two, and their games have averaged just eight runs per game.

Jose Quintana is on the mound for the Mets today, as they are on the road against the Braves. Quintana has started two games this season, and he took the loss in his first outing vs. the Brewers. In that game, he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up 2 earned runs. He followed that up with a no-decision vs. the Reds, where he went 5 2/3 innings and gave up just 1 earned run.

For the Mets, we are projecting Brandon Nimmo to have the most hits on the team and his hits projection is 11th best in the league today. Pete Alonso has the highest home run projection on the team and it is 7th best in the league today. Jeff McNeil is 2nd on the team in terms of total hits, while Francisco Alvarez has the 2nd best odds to hit a home run for the Mets.

Braves Records & Stats

Allan Winans will be making his seventh start of the season for the Braves, and he’ll be looking to improve on his record of 1-2. Last season, Winans made two starts against the Mets, going 1-1 with an ERA of 4.85. Overall, his ERA for the season is 5.29, and his WHIP is 1.39. In terms of quality starts, Winans has two so far this season, and his strikeout per nine innings average is 9.46. Last season, he averaged 1.3 walks per appearance, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 4.2.

Our model is projecting Ronald Acuña Jr. to have a big game at the plate for the Braves. He not only has the highest total hits projection on the team, but it’s the best in the league today. If you’re looking to bet on a Braves player to hit a home run, we have Marcell Ozuna with the 4th best odds in the league today. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team in terms of home run projections.