UCF Knights vs Florida Gators Betting Pick & Prediction 10/5/24
At 7:45 ET, UCF and Florida will face off from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville for this week six non-conference matchup. SECN will be covering the action as UCF comes in with a 3-1 record, while the Gators are 2-2. The over/under is at 61.5 points, and UCF is the slight -2.5 point favorite on the road.
UCF KNIGHTS VS FLORIDA GATORS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Florida Gators +2.5
This game will be played at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at 7:45 ET on Saturday, October 5th.
WHY BET THE FLORIDA GATORS:
- We have the Florida Gators winning this one by a score of 29 to 25
- Not only do we have the Florida Gators winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 61.5 points
Will The UCF Knights Pick Up A Win On The Road?
UCF enters Week 6 against Florida with a 3-1 record and ranks 31st in our CFB power rankings. They have an 88.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and a 6.4% shot at winning the Big 12 this season.
The Knights have been favored in two of their four games, going 1-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +14.8 points, and they are 2-1 against the spread so far.
UCF’s over/under record is 3-0, with their games averaging 64.2 points. This week’s line is 61.5, compared to their average over/under line of 58.8 points.
UCF’s offense has been dominant on the ground, ranking 2nd in the nation with 326 rushing yards per game. They are 6th in rushing attempts, averaging 52.2 per game, and are converting 50% of their third downs, which ranks 16th nationally. Overall, they are 19th in scoring, with 39.5 points per game, and they are 24th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6.
RJ Harvey leads the rushing attack with 525 yards, averaging 7 yards per carry, and he has scored 8 touchdowns. KJ Jefferson, the Knights’ quarterback, has thrown for 847 yards and 7 touchdowns this season. UCF ranks 89th in passing yards per game. Kobe Hudson has 349 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
UCF’s defense is ranked 37th nationally, allowing 24.8 points per game. In their recent game, they gave up 48 points, including 290 passing yards and three touchdowns, though they did manage one interception.
Opponents have averaged 251.5 passing yards per game against UCF, ranking them 128th in the nation. However, UCF’s defense has been strong against the run, ranking 12th nationally, allowing just 82.2 rushing yards per game on 25.2 attempts, the 8th fewest in the country.
Will The Florida Gators Win At Home Over The UCF Knights?
Florida enters Week 6 with a 2-2 record, hosting UCF. The Gators are 0-2 at home but 1-0 on the road. They’ve been favored in just one game this season, and our projections give them a 14.4% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. Florida is ranked 46th in our power rankings.
The Gators’ over/under record stands at 3-0, with their games averaging 59 points. This week’s line is set at 61.5 points, compared to their average line of 52.3 points.
Florida’s ATS record is 1-2, with an average scoring margin of +4.5 points per game. They are 1-0 against the spread as favorites and 0-2 as underdogs, going 1-0 on the road and 0-2 at home.
Heading into week 6, Florida’s offense ranks 42nd in points per game, averaging 31.8, and they are 40th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game is 47th in yards, with 278.5 per game, and they rank 46th in completions. However, they are 11th in completion percentage, completing 70.6% of their passes, and they are 75th in third down conversions, converting 36.8%.
DJ Lagway leads the Gators with 617 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 109. Montrell Johnson Jr. has rushed for 234 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Elijhah Badger has 305 receiving yards on 14 catches, with one touchdown.
Florida’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27.2 points per game. In their latest game, a 45-28 win over Mississippi State, they gave up 28 points and 294 total yards. Mississippi State ran the ball 50 times for 150 yards and completed 12 passes for 144 yards.
Opponents have averaged 189 rushing yards per game against Florida, while quarterbacks have posted a 107 passer rating, completing 65.6% of their throws for an average of 236.8 yards per game.