Troy Trojans vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Pick & Prediction 10/26/24

Arkansas State comes into this week nine matchup as the -7 point favorite over the Troy Trojans. The game is set for 7:00 ET at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, with ESPN+ handling the television broadcast. The over/under line is currently 51.5 points. The Red Wolves have a 4-3 record for the season, while Troy is looking to improve on their 1-6 record.

TROY TROJANS VS ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Troy Trojans +7

This game will be played at Centennial Bank Stadium at 7:00 ET on Saturday, October 26th.

WHY BET THE TROY TROJANS:

• We have the Arkansas State Red Wolves winning this one by a score of 32 to 27
• Even though we like the Arkansas State Red Wolves to win, our ATS pick is to take the Troy Trojans at +7
• Look for this game to go over the line of 51.5 points

Will The Troy Trojans Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

At 1-6 this season, Troy is ranked 108th in our CFB power rankings. They have a 0.9% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. On the road, they are 0-3, and they’ve gone 0-3 at home. So far, Troy has been favored in two games but lost both matchups.

Troy’s ATS record is 1-5, with an average scoring margin of -8.4 points per game. They are 0-2 against the spread as favorites and 1-3 as underdogs.

The over/under line for this week’s game is 51.5 points. Troy’s games have averaged 46.4 points, with an average line of 49.2 points. Their over/under record is 2-4 this season.

Heading into week 9, Troy’s offense ranks 109th in our power rankings, averaging 19 points per game. They are also 94th in rushing, with 121.9 yards per game. Damien Taylor leads the ground attack with 422 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored two touchdowns.

Quarterback Goose Crowder has thrown for 546 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 122. Troy ranks 21st in third-down conversions, converting 45.7% of their attempts. Devonte Ross has 625 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 38 catches.

Troy’s defense is allowing 27.4 points per game this season, including 25 points in their recent 25-9 loss to South Alabama. They gave up 319 total yards, with 161 rushing yards on 39 attempts and 158 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 180.9 rushing yards per game against Troy, while quarterbacks have posted a 99.7 passer rating, completing 71.4% of their passes for an average of 193 yards per game.

Are The Arkansas State Red Wolves Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Arkansas State enters Week 9 with a 4-3 record, hosting Troy. They are 2-0 at home and rank 109th in our CFB power rankings. The Red Wolves have a 69.3% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, according to projections.

They’ve been favored in two games this season, going 2-0 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is -8.9 points per game, and they are 3-3 against the spread.

This week’s over/under line is set at 51.5 points. Arkansas State’s games have averaged 54 points, and their over/under record is 2-4, with an average line of 58.3 points.

Heading into week 9, Arkansas State’s offense is averaging 22.6 points per game, placing them 78th nationally. They are ranked 89th in our offensive power rankings. Jaylen Raynor, their quarterback, has thrown for 1,518 yards, with the team ranking 17th in passing attempts per game. Raynor has seven touchdowns and six interceptions, with a passer rating of 78.

Arkansas State is 21st in completions per game and averages 236.6 passing yards. Their third-down conversion rate is 39.3%. On the ground, they average 137.7 rushing yards per game. Ja’Quez Cross leads the rushing attack with 334 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry. Corey Rucker has 510 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Arkansas State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 31.4 points per game. In their recent game against Southern Miss, they gave up 28 points, allowing 369 total yards, including 182 rushing yards and 187 passing yards, though they did manage to force an interception.

Opponents have averaged 221.7 rushing yards per game against Arkansas State, while quarterbacks have posted a 91.5 passer rating, completing 64.7% of their passes for an average of 226 yards per game.