Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens Betting Pick & Prediction 3/9/24

Betting on today’s Maple Leafs and Canadiens game? Catch the action at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC, as the Canadiens hosts this showdown at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Maple Leafs are the -1.5 goal favorites in this Atlantic division matchup against the Canadiens. The over/under for the game is set at 6.5 goals.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS MONTREAL CANADIENS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Montreal Canadiens +1.5

This game will be played at Bell Centre at 7:00 ET on Saturday, March 9th.

WHY BET THE MONTREAL CANADIENS:

• With the Maple Leafs being favored by 1.5, our NHL analytics models has this one playing out 4-3 in favor of the Maple Leafs.
• Take the Maple Leafs on the moneyline
• On the puck line, we like Canadiens (+1.5)

Will the Maple Leafs Win on the Road?

Through 63 games, the Maple Leafs are 36-19-8 and sit in 3rd place in the Atlantic Division and 5th in the Eastern Conference. On the road this season, Toronto is 18-7-6.

Over their last 10 games, the Maple Leafs have gone 7-3, and they are 3-2 in their last five games. As the favorite this season, Toronto has gone 31-14-7.

When it comes to puck line results, the Maple Leafs are just 22-41 this year and have gone just 5-5 over their last 10 games. On the road, Toronto has gone 12-19 against the puck line, and their average scoring margin away from home is at +.5 goals per game.

So far, the Leafs have been favored in 52 games and have gone just 15-37 against the puck line in those games. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Toronto has gone just 5-5 against the puck line. This season, the team has 19 wins by multiple goals compared to 17 wins by just one goal.

The average goal total for Toronto’s games is sitting at 6.8. The average over/under line for the season is 6.5. The Maple Leafs come in with an over/under record of 33-28-2.

Toronto has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 4 goals per game while allowing 3. The team also performed well vs the puck line at 2-1.

Offensively, the Maple Leafs come into the game at 3.5 goals per contest placing 4th in the NHL. In terms of shots on goal per game, they are in 4th position in the league. In terms of power play goals, the Maple Leafs offense is 6th in power play goals. As for shorthanded goals, they are 13th in the NHL.

Toronto will be looking for a good game from Auston Matthews who leads the team in scoring with 54 goals, ranking 1st in the NHL. In addition to his goal scoring, Matthews has 26 assists this season.

Montreal defense takes on the Maple Leafs ranked 2nd in goals allowed. On average, opponents are averaging 32.7 shots per game against Montreal. They also are 27th in shutouts, with 1 shutouts.

Entering the game, goalie Ilya Samsonov has started 29 games this season. His current record stands at 16-5, and his save percentage is 0.639%.

Will the Canadiens Win at Home?

With just 58 points, the Canadiens find themselves in 14th place in the Eastern Conference and 7th in the Atlantic Division. Over their last ten games, Montreal has gone just 2-8, and they are 2-3 in their last five games and 1-2 in their last three.

Playing at home this season, the Canadiens have gone 12-16-3 and are 12-29-10 overall. In games against other teams from the Eastern Conference, Montreal has gone just 12-24 this year.

Montreal enters the game with a puck line record of 40-23 and has gone 7-3 against the puck line in their last ten games. Their average scoring margin for the season sits at -0.8 goals per game.

As the underdog, the Canadiens have a puck line record of 39-19 this season, including going 4-1 against the puck line in their last five games. So far this year, Montreal has 16 wins by just one goal.

This season, Montreal’s games have an average of 6.4 goals per game. The average over/under number for the season is 6.3. The Canadiens come in with an over/under performance of 33-28-2.

When looking at their past three road matchups, Toronto has an puck line record of 2-1 while averaging 4 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.

For their offensive performance, the Canadiens come in averaging 2.8 goals per game this season, which is 27th in the NHL. In the category of shots on goal per game, they are 27th in the league. So far this year, the Canadiens are 6-7 in games they have had more shots on goal than their opponent. They are 18-21 in games with fewer shots on goal.

Montreal will be looking for a good game from Nick Suzuki who leads the team in scoring with 25 goals, ranking 33rd in the NHL. Suzuki also comes into the game with 36 assists.

The Canadiens defense is currently 2nd in goals allowed. Opponents are averaging 32.7 shots per game against Montreal. In terms of shutouts, they come into the game ranked 27th with 1 shutouts.

Heading into this matchup vs. Toronto, goalie Sam Montembeault has started 29 games in this season. His current record is 13-11, and his save percentage stands at 0.769%.