Texas State Bobcats vs Troy Trojans Betting Pick & Prediction 10/3/24

Heading into this week six matchup, the Texas State Bobcats are on the road vs. the Troy Trojans. Kick-off is set for 7:00 ET from Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) in Troy, and the game can be seen on ESNU. The Bobcats are 2-2 on the season, while Troy is looking for just their second win, as they come in with a 1-4 record. Texas State is the -14-point favorite, and the over/under line is at 57.5 points.

TEXAS STATE BOBCATS VS TROY TROJANS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Troy Trojans +14

This game will be played at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) at 7:00 ET on Thursday, October 3rd.

WHY BET THE TROY TROJANS:

• We have the Texas State Bobcats winning this one by a score of 32 to 22
• Even though we like the Texas State Bobcats to win, our ATS pick is to take the Troy Trojans at +14
• We see this game finishing below the line of 57.5 points

Will The Texas State Bobcats Win As Road Favorites?

Texas State enters Week 6 against Troy with a 2-2 record, ranked 81st in our power rankings. They have an 84.5% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. So far, they are 1-1 at home and 0-1 on the road this season.

Despite being favored in three of their four games, Texas State is 1-2 as the favorite, with an average scoring margin of +10.5 points per game. Against the spread, they are 1-2 this season.

The over/under line for this week is 57.5 points. Texas State’s games have averaged 64.5 points, and their over/under record is 2-0-1, with an average margin of +8 points over the line.

Texas State’s offense is averaging 37.5 points per game, placing them 21st in the nation heading into week 6. Our power rankings have them as the 53rd best offense in college football. They rank 23rd in passing completions, averaging 26 per game, and are 35th in passing attempts, with 37.5 per game. Their passing attack is producing 294 yards per game, and they have converted 43.6% of their third-down attempts.

Quarterback Jordan McCloud has completed 69.3% of his passes, throwing for 1,141 yards and 12 touchdowns, with three interceptions. His passer rating is 113. Jaden Williams leads the receiving corps with 292 yards and three touchdowns on 22 catches. On the ground, Texas State is averaging 160 rushing yards per game, with Ismail Mahdi leading the way with 307 yards and one touchdown.

Texas State’s defense will look to bounce back after giving up 40 points in their recent 40-39 loss to Sam Houston. They allowed 25 first downs and 395 total yards, including 300 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. Through the air, Texas State’s defense limited Sam Houston to just 95 passing yards on 10 completions.

On the season, Texas State ranks 44th nationally, allowing 27 points per game. Opponents are averaging 137.5 rushing yards per game on 38.2 carries, while quarterbacks have posted a 76.1 passer rating, completing 52.8% of their passes for 207.5 yards per game.

Are The Troy Trojans Going Win In At Upset At Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

At 1-4 this season, Troy is ranked 100th in our CFB power rankings. They have just a 13.6% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Trojans are 0-2 at home and 0-2 on the road, and they’ve been favored in two of their five games so far.

Troy’s average scoring margin is -4.4 points per game, and they are 1-3 against the spread. At home, they are 0-2 ATS, and they’ve gone 0-2 as the favorite this season.

This week’s over/under line is 57.5 points, higher than any of Troy’s previous games. Their over/under record is 2-2, with an average line of 46.2 points and an average total of 47.2 points per game.

Heading into week 6, Troy’s offense is averaging 21.4 points per game, placing them 76th nationally. They are ranked 83rd in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game ranks 76th with 189 yards per game, but they are 46th in completions, averaging 15.4 per game. Troy is also converting 48.5% of their third downs, which ranks 22nd.

Quarterback Goose Crowder has completed 69.8% of his passes for 546 yards and has five touchdowns without an interception, giving him a passer rating of 122. Damien Taylor leads the rushing attack with 336 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Devonte Ross has 529 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 29 catches.

Despite a strong defensive effort, Troy lost 13-9 to UL Monroe, allowing just 13 points. The defense gave up 257 total yards, including 122 rushing yards on 37 attempts and 135 passing yards, while forcing one interception.

Opponents have averaged a 96.7 passer rating and 118.2 passing yards per game against Troy’s defense. The unit has faced the 23rd fewest pass attempts nationally, but they’ve allowed 178 rushing yards per game, ranking 123rd in the country.