Texas Longhorns vs Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Pick & Prediction 10/26/24

SECN will be covering this week nine college football matchup between the Texas Longhorns and Vanderbilt Commodores, set to kick off at 4:15 ET from FirstBank Stadium in Nashville. The Longhorns are heavy favorites at -18.5 points, with the over/under line currently at 53.5 points. Texas comes in with a 6-1 record, while Vanderbilt is 5-2 on the season.

TEXAS LONGHORNS VS VANDERBILT COMMODORES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores +18.5

This game will be played at FirstBank Stadium at 4:15 ET on Saturday, October 26th.

WHY BET THE VANDERBILT COMMODORES:

• We have the Texas Longhorns winning this one by a score of 31 to 17
• Even though we like the Texas Longhorns to win, our ATS pick is to take the Vanderbilt Commodores at +18.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 53.5 points

Will The Texas Longhorns Win As Road Favorites?

Texas enters Week 9 with a 6-1 record, ranked 2nd in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and a 34% chance of winning the Southeastern. The Longhorns have the 4th best odds of making the playoff at 78.9% and lead the nation with a 29.4% chance of reaching the national championship game.

The Longhorns have been favored in all seven games this season, going 6-1 and posting an average scoring margin of +29.4 points per game. Against the spread, Texas is 5-2, with a 3-2 record at home and a perfect 2-0 mark on the road.

Texas games have averaged 48.9 points, with an over/under record of 3-4. This week’s line is set at 53.5 points, just below their average line of 54 points for the season.

Texas has leaned on their passing game this season, ranking 15th in passing yards per game with 295.6 and completing 23.4 passes per game. They are also 12th in completion percentage, connecting on 68% of their attempts. Overall, they are 17th in scoring, averaging 39.1 points per game, and we have them 18th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 9.

Quinn Ewers leads the Longhorns with 1,101 passing yards and a 68.2% completion rate. He has thrown 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 102. Isaiah Bond is the leading receiver with 380 yards and 4 touchdowns on 23 catches. Texas is averaging 166.6 rushing yards per game.

Despite a 30-15 loss to Georgia, Texas’s defense allowed just 285 total yards, including 110 rushing yards on 28 carries and 175 passing yards. They also forced three interceptions, although they gave up three rushing touchdowns.

On the season, Texas ranks second nationally, allowing just 9.7 points per game. They are fifth in passing yards allowed (132.7) and 27th in rushing yards allowed (106.7).

Are The Vanderbilt Commodores Going Win In At Upset At FirstBank Stadium

Vanderbilt enters Week 9 against Texas with a 5-2 record, ranked 42nd in our power rankings. They have a 76.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 0.1% chance of winning the Southeastern. At home, the Commodores are 2-0 this season.

Vanderbilt’s average scoring margin is +11, and they are 2-2 against the spread. As favorites, they are 0-2 ATS, but they’ve gone 2-0 ATS as underdogs.

The over/under line for this week is 53.5 points. Vanderbilt’s games have averaged 55.3 points, with an average over/under line of 50.1 points this season.

Vanderbilt’s offense is averaging 33.1 points per game, ranking 30th in the nation, and they are 20th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 9. Their strength lies in their third-down efficiency, converting 52.1% of their attempts, which is 8th best in the country. They also have the 10th best passer rating nationally.

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt’s quarterback, has a passer rating of 116, completing 66.2% of his throws for 1,391 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just one interception. On the ground, Vanderbilt averages 163.4 rushing yards per game. Sedrick Alexander leads the team with 380 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

Vanderbilt’s defense is ranked 40th nationally, allowing 22.1 points per game. They’ve given up 215.1 passing yards per game, ranking 87th, with a 63.6% completion rate allowed. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 85.7 against Vanderbilt, which ranks 81st.

In their recent game against Ball State, Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 14 points and 268 total yards. They gave up 78 rushing yards on 22 attempts and 190 passing yards.