Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 5/14/24

The forecast doesn’t look great in Boston on Tuesday, where the Red Sox and Rays will face off with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and overcast skies. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 PM ET, and NESN will be televising this AL East matchup.

The Red Sox are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -123 compared to the Rays at +103. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and the Rays will be looking to move above .500, as they are 21-21. Boston is 3rd in the AL East, also with a record of 21-20.

BOSTON RED SOX VS TAMPA BAY RAYS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline -123

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 7:10 ET on Tuesday, May 14th.

HOW TO BET THE RAYS VS RED SOX:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 5 to 4
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Red Sox to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Tampa Bay picked up a 5-3 road win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a three-run 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up two in the 8th. As for the Red Sox, they scored all three of their runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Rays were at -103 on the money line.

Zach Eflin got the win for the Rays, going five innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with just two strikeouts and allowed one home run. Jason Adam got the save. Kutter Crawford had a rough outing for the Red Sox, taking the loss after going six innings and giving up four earned runs.

Yandy Diaz, Amed Rosario, and Jose Caballero each had two RBIs for the Rays’ offense. Tyler O’Neill hit the game’s only home run while going 1/3 with three RBIs.

Rays Records & Stats

The Rays are at an even 21-21 overall and trail the Orioles by six games for the AL East lead. So far, they are 5-6 against other AL East teams. Tampa Bay is currently 1 game behind the Red Sox for 3rd place in the division.

At home, the Rays have gone 14-12 this season and are just under .500 at 7-9 on the road. So far, they have struggled as the favorite, going 14-15, but they are above .500 at 7-6 as the underdog. Tampa Bay’s series record is 5-6-2 this year.

When the Rays win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.6 runs per game. However, they’ve been outscored by an average of -0.7 runs per game overall, and they’re just 17-25 against the run line. They’ve been a better bet on the road, where they’re 7-9 against the run line, compared to 10-16 at home. As the favorite, they’re just 9-20 against the run line, while they’re 8-5 as the underdog.

When the Rays have played games with over/under lines set at 8.5 runs this season, the over has hit in 10 of their 17 games, including their most recent game against the Red Sox. Overall, the over has hit in 23 of their 42 games this season, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game.

Tampa Bay is sending right-hander Aaron Civale to the mound today vs. the Red Sox. He has made a total of eight starts this season and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 5.88. This year, opponents are batting .262 vs. Civale, and his WHIP is 1.35. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work vs. the White Sox. Civale has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.36 strikeouts and 2.61 walks.

Heading into today’s game, the Rays offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game, but on the road, that number drops to 3.8. As a team, they are batting .245, which is 10th in the league, and have the 8th best on-base percentage in the league.

Isaac Paredes has been swinging the bat well for the Rays, as he is batting .300 for the season and has gone 10/27 in his last eight games. He also has a team-high eight homers and 22 RBIs. Yandy Diaz has also been hot of late, going 15/37 in his last nine games. This has helped him move his season average to .261, and he is currently on a five-game hitting streak.

Red Sox Records & Stats

Boston is 21-20 overall this season, and they are 3rd in the AL East, 5.5 games behind the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they have yet to win a game vs. an AL East opponent, going 0-4. The Red Sox have lost two straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last ten games.

At home, the Red Sox are 9-11 this year and 12-9 on the road. As the underdog, Boston is 10-13 this year and 11-7 when favored. Their overall series record is 7-5-1 this year.

When it comes to the run line, the Red Sox have been a better bet on the road this season, going 13-8 compared to 7-13 at home. Their average run margin on the road is +1.8, while it’s -0.4 at Fenway Park. They’ve been a better bet as an underdog, going 14-9 on the run line compared to 6-12 as the favorite.

The Boston Red Sox have been trending towards the under, with their last six games all finishing under the total. Their over/under record for the season is 14-24, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is higher than the average line for their games this season. The Red Sox have played in 19.5% of their games with a higher over/under line than 8.5 runs.

Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox, as they take on the Rays at home. Pivetta has started 3 games this season, with his most recent outing being a loss to the Braves. He went 4 innings, giving up 5 runs and striking out 7. He also has a win over the Athletics and took a loss to the Mariners.

Ceddanne Rafaela comes into the game as the Red Sox’s top run producer, as his 22 RBIs are 1st on the team and 14th in the league. He is also 5th on the team with three homers but has struggled with a batting average of just .209. However, he has been swinging the bat better of late, going 8/29 in his last nine games. Tyler O’Neill and Jarren Duran are both batting over .260 for the season, with O’Neill leading the team with 10 homers. Duran is 2nd on the team with 16 RBIs.

Overall, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They have been pretty consistent at home and on the road, averaging 4.0 and 4.5 runs per game, respectively. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 11th in the league.