Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick & Prediction 9/7/24

The Orioles head into Saturday’s matchup vs. the Rays looking to maintain their division lead, as they are 1st in the AL East with an overall record of 82-60. The Rays are 4th in the AL East, with their record of 69-72. Zach Eflin will start for the Orioles, while the Rays are starting Ryan Pepiot.

Baltimore is currently favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -185 compared to the Rays at +155. Today’s over/under line is at 8 runs, and the game is being televised on MASN.

TAMPA BAY RAYS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES BETTING PICK

The Pick: OVER 8 Runs

This game will be played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards at 4:05 ET on Saturday, September 7th.

HOW TO BET THE RAYS VS ORIOLES:

• We have the Orioles winning by a score of 6 to 4
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Orioles to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 10 runs and like the over

Baltimore picked up a 2-0 win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had just two more hits than the Rays and struck out 12 times, but still picked up a win thanks to a good outing from Dean Kremer, who went six innings and didn’t give up a run.

Shane Baz started for the Rays and gave up just one run in six innings of work. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued three walks. Tampa Bay’s offense was held in check, as they scored their only run in the 5th inning.

Gunnar Henderson was the difference for the Orioles, as he homered and scored both of their runs. He finished the game 2/4 with an RBI. Baltimore’s other three hits came from Ryan Mountcastle, DJ Stewart, and Ramon Urias.

Rays Records & Stats

Tampa Bay is 69-72 overall, and they trail the Orioles in the AL East by 12.5 games. Currently, they are 4th in the division, sitting 2 games behind the Red Sox for the 3rd spot in the AL East. The Rays have dropped two straight games, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.

So far, the Rays have gone 17-24 against other AL East teams. At home, they are just above .500 at 37-38 and 32-34 on the road. As the road underdog, the Rays are 21-23 this year, and they are 34-42 as the underdog overall. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 21-17-6, and they are down 0-1 in this series vs. the Orioles.

When the Rays are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 37-29. They have a run line record of 71-70 overall, with an average run margin of -0.4. They have been especially good against the run line as the underdog, going 47-29.

The Tampa Bay Rays are on the road today against the Baltimore Orioles, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Rays have a combined run average of 8.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 63-70. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 16-18-1. So far this season, 32.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, while 42.6% of their games have had lines set lower than 8 runs.

Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Orioles on the road. He has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 7-6 with an ERA of 3.76. Pepiot’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.12, and he has turned in eight quality starts. In his last outing, Pepiot finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. The right-hander has allowed at least one home run in three straight outings.

For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been especially bad at home, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .230 and are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and slugging percentage.

Yandy Diaz has been the Rays’ most consistent hitter this season, batting .275 with 13 homers and a team-high 62 RBIs. However, he has gone just 4/17 in his last four games. Christopher Morel has also struggled this season, hitting just .197, but he does have 21 homers. Morel is also on a three-game hitting streak, and Jonny DeLuca has gone 6/19 in his last five games.

Orioles Records & Stats

The Orioles are 82-60 overall and lead the AL East by a half-game over the Yankees. So far, they have gone 29-15 against other teams in the division. Baltimore is at home today, where they are 42-31 this season. They have been good on the road too, going 40-29.

So far, the Orioles have been the favorite in 112 of their games, and they have gone 67-45 in those matchups. As the underdog, they are 15-15 this season. Baltimore’s overall series record is 24-13-7, and they have won two straight series.

When betting the run line on the Orioles, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 42-27 against the run line. Their scoring margin is slightly better on the road at +0.9 runs per game compared to +0.5 runs per game at home. They’ve been a run line favorite in 112 games and have gone 57-55 in those contests.

The Orioles are at home today against the Rays, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. Baltimore’s games have averaged 9.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 76-55. When the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 17-7-3. Overall, 61.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.

Zach Eflin has been pitching well for the Orioles, as he has won his last four starts. Most recently, he faced off against the Rockies and gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work. Looking back at his last four outings, Eflin has only given up more than one earned run once. For the season, he has made 24 starts, turned in 11 quality starts, and has an ERA of 3.60. Eflin’s overall record is 10-7. Per nine innings, he is averaging just 1.01 walks compared to 7.65 strikeouts.

Heading into the game, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and have the top isolated power number in the league. As a team, they are averaging 5 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are 3rd in the league in scoring. Baltimore is also the top slugging team in the league and 4th in OPS.

Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson are the Orioles’ top two home run hitters this season, and both have been swinging the bat well of late. Henderson has gone 10/23 in his last six games, including three homers, and Santander is on a six-game hitting streak. For the season, Santander is batting .241, and Henderson is at .282.