SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Pick & Prediction College Football Playoff First Round Game

Beaver Stadium in University Park is the site for this SMU Mustangs vs. Penn State Nittany Lions first-round college football playoff matchup, set for 12:00 ET on Saturday, December 21st. The game will be broadcast on TNT, with Penn State coming in with an 11-2 record and the Mustangs also at 11-2. The over/under line is at 53.5 points, and Penn State is -9 point favorites at home. The money line odds are -330 for Penn State and +257 for SMU.

SMU MUSTANGS VS PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS BETTING PICK

The Pick: SMU Mustangs +9

This game will be played at Beaver Stadium at 12:00 ET on Saturday, December 21st.

WHY BET THE SMU MUSTANGS:

• We have the Penn State Nittany Lions winning this one by a score of 27 to 21
• Even though we like the Penn State Nittany Lions to win, our ATS pick is to take the SMU Mustangs at +9
• We see this game finishing below the line of 53.5 points

Will The SMU Mustangs Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

SMU enters Week 1 against Penn State with an 11-2 record, going 5-2 at home and 4-0 on the road. They’ve been favored in nine of their 13 games, holding a 7-2 record as the favorite. At home, they are 4-2 as the favorite, while they’ve gone 3-0 on the road when favored.

The Mustangs have a +17.7 average scoring margin and are 7-4 against the spread this season. They’ve covered in three of four road games and are 5-4 ATS as the favorite.

SMU’s over/under record is 6-5, with their games averaging 59.4 points. Their average over/under line is 54.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 53.5 points.

SMU’s offense is 6th in points per game, scoring 38.5, and they are 22nd in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 3,050 yards with a passer rating of 105. He has 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, completing 66% of his passes.

SMU ranks 15th in passing yards per game and 29th in rushing yards, averaging 181.1 on the ground. Brashard Smith leads the rushing attack with 1,267 yards and 14 touchdowns. Roderick Daniels Jr. has 599 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.

SMU’s defense has been strong against the run this season, ranking 9th nationally by allowing just 94.5 rushing yards per game. In their recent game against Clemson, they gave up only 64 rushing yards on 32 attempts. However, the secondary struggled, allowing 262 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Opponents have averaged a 55.6% completion rate against SMU, with 232.7 passing yards per game, ranking the Mustangs 113th in the nation. On average, quarterbacks have posted a 77.1 passer rating against SMU’s defense.

Are The Penn State Nittany Lions Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Penn State enters their Week 1 matchup against SMU with an 11-2 record. They’ve been strong at home, going 6-1, and have a 4-1 record on the road. The Nittany Lions have been favored in 10 of their 13 games, and they’ve gone 10-0 as the favorite this season.

Their average scoring margin is +17.2 points per game, and they are 6-6 against the spread. At home, they are 3-4 ATS, and they’ve gone 3-2 on the road. As the favorite, Penn State is 6-4 ATS this season.

Penn State’s over/under record is 5-7, with their games averaging 50 points. This week’s line is set at 53.5 points, higher than 12 of their games this season. Their average over/under line has been 49.8 points, and they’ve exceeded the total by an average of 0.2 points per game.

Penn State’s offense is averaging 33.6 points per game, ranking 22nd in scoring heading into week 11. However, they are 4th in our offensive power rankings. Their rushing attack is their strength, averaging 203.6 yards per game on 37.5 attempts.

Nicholas Singleton leads the ground game with 838 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored seven touchdowns. Quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 2,894 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 109.

Despite a tough outing against Oregon, where they allowed 45 points and 469 total yards, Penn State’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 10th nationally by allowing just 16.4 points per game. They gave up 283 passing yards and four touchdowns in the game, while Oregon also rushed for 186 yards on 41 carries.

Overall, Penn State’s defense has allowed just 106.2 rushing yards per game (18th) and 178.5 passing yards per game (25th). Opposing quarterbacks have a 58.2% completion rate and a 77.3 passer rating against Penn State’s defense.