San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills Betting Pick & Prediction 12/1/24

Looking at the money line odds, the Bills are -319 favorites as they host the 49ers at 8:20 ET on Sunday. The 49ers vs. Bills week 13 non-conference matchup is being televised on NBC. The 49ers are +252 on the money line, and the over/under line is set at 45.5 points, with the Bills favored by -7 points. This one is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS BUFFALO BILLS BETTING PICK

The Pick: San Francisco 49ers +7

This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 8:20 ET on Sunday, December 1st.

WHY BET THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS:

• We have the 49ers winning this one by a score of 25 to 17
• Not only do we have the 49ers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +7
• We see this game finishing below the line of 45.5 points

Will The 49ers Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Heading into week 13, the 49ers rank 7th in our NFL power rankings despite their 5-6 record. San Francisco has lost two straight, including a 38-10 blowout loss to the Packers in week 12. The 49ers were 6.5-point underdogs in that game but couldn’t cover the spread. This dropped their ATS record to 4-7, and they’ve now failed to cover in three straight games.

Our projections give the 49ers a 16.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 12.9% chance of winning the NFC West. They currently sit 4th in the division with a 1-3 record. San Francisco is 3-3 at home and 2-3 on the road this season.

Heading into week 13, the 49ers are 12th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 23.6 points per game (13th) and 384.5 yards per game (4th). They rank 4th in passing yards, with 246.2 per game, on 30.5 attempts per game (20th). In the run game, they are 10th in attempts and 7th in rushing yards, averaging 138.4 per game. San Francisco is 6th in 3rd-down conversions but ranks 21st in red zone efficiency, despite being 6th in attempts.

Christian McCaffrey had 31 rushing yards on 11 carries in week 12, and George Kittle led the team with 82 receiving yards on 6 catches. Brandon Allen threw for 197 yards, completing 17 of 29 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. The 49ers struggled on 3rd down, converting only 3 of 10 attempts, and they failed to score in the 1st and 4th quarters against the Packers.

In their 38-10 loss to the Packers, the 49ers’ defense gave up 169 rushing yards on 42 attempts, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt. Despite allowing 325 total yards, the defense limited Green Bay to just 156 passing yards on 13 completions. The Packers capitalized with two passing touchdowns and converted 46.2% of their third down attempts.

San Francisco’s defense managed two sacks and had a tackles for loss advantage of +2.

Are The Bills Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Buffalo’s win over the Chiefs in week 11 extended their winning streak to six games, bringing their record to 9-2. The Bills are now in first place in the AFC East and rank second in the conference. Our projections give them a 100% chance of making the playoffs and winning their division. Heading into week 13, they are third in our NFL power rankings.

Buffalo is 7-4 against the spread this season, including two straight wins. In week 11, they covered the 3-point spread with a 9-point win over Kansas City. The over has hit in three straight Bills games, including week 11, when they and the Chiefs combined for 51 points, surpassing the 47-point line.

Josh Allen threw for 262 yards and a touchdown in week 11, completing 27 of 40 passes against the Chiefs, while also rushing for 55 yards on 12 carries. He avoided being sacked but did throw one interception. The Bills’ offense came alive in the 4th quarter, scoring 14 points after being shut out in the 3rd. They converted 9 of 15 3rd-down attempts and scored on 3 of 4 red zone trips.

Buffalo ranks 3rd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29.1, and is 13th in passing yards per game with 226.1. They also rank 13th in rushing yards per game, averaging 119.2. Despite being 2nd in red zone attempts, they rank 28th in conversion percentage at 6.4%.

In their 30-21 win over the Chiefs, the Bills’ defense allowed just 78 rushing yards on 17 attempts and held Kansas City to 181 passing yards. Despite giving up three passing touchdowns, Buffalo’s defense came away with two interceptions. The Bills allowed the Chiefs to convert on 50% of their third down attempts and finish with a 69.7% completion percentage.

Buffalo’s defense pressured the quarterback effectively, coming away with two sacks and winning the quarterback hit battle by a margin of +3.