San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 6/28/24

Friday’s interleague matchup between the Padres and Red Sox has a first pitch of 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The Red Sox are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -154, while the Padres are at +130. The over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs.

San Diego will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak, as they are 44-41 overall and 2nd in the NL West. Boston is 43-37 and 3rd in the AL East. Nick Pivetta is set to start for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Randy Vasquez for the Padres. APLTV is carrying this one on TV.

BOSTON RED SOX VS SAN DIEGO PADRES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline -154

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, June 28th.

HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS RED SOX:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Padres to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the under

Padres Records & Stats

The Padres’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with an 8-5 win. After allowing five runs to the Nationals in the top of the 9th, the Padres were the -190 favorite at home going into the game.

Dylan Cease put together a good start for the Padres, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out nine Nationals batters. Kyle Higashioka was hot at the plate, going 3/4 with two homers and six RBIs.

San Diego is on a three-game winning streak, and they are 44-41 overall this season. The Padres will be on the road today, taking on the Red Sox. In the NL West, they are 8.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. So far, they are 14-15 in divisional games.

As the road underdog, the Padres have gone 12-11 this year, and they are 20-19 overall on the road. San Diego has been slightly better than .500 at home, going 24-22. The Padres have won two straight series and are 15-10-3 in series play this year.

San Diego has been a great bet on the run line on the road this season, going 27-12. They have covered the run line in two straight games and four straight as an underdog. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.6, but they have been outscored by an average of -3.3 runs in their losses.

San Diego’s over/under record is 45-39 this season, and they’ve hit the over in five of six games when the line is set at 9.5 runs. The Padres’ games have averaged nine runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 7-0 in their last seven games.

Randy Vásquez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. So far this season, he has made 10 starts and has a record of 2-4 with an ERA of 5.10. Vásquez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.68. In his 10 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 5.85 strikeouts per nine innings. Vásquez most recently pitched on June 22nd, where he picked up the win, going five innings and not allowing a run. Before that outing, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts.

Over the past nine games, both Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have hit three home runs for the Padres, with Machado batting .371 and Merrill hitting .324 over that stretch. Machado has also driven in seven runs in this stretch and comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. Kyle Higashioka has also homered three times in his last six games, going 7/20 in that stretch.

Jurickson Profar has been a key power bat for the Padres this season, as his 11 home runs are 3rd on the team and his 55 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 8th in the league. He is also batting .316 for the season. As a team, the Padres are 2nd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game.

Red Sox Records & Stats

The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a 9-4 loss. Boston was actually the slight favorite at -129 on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Blue Jays scored seven times in the third.

Brayan Bello got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted 2 1/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. Rafael Devers had a good day at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.

Boston will open their series vs. the Padres at home today, and they are 7.5 games behind the Orioles for the AL East lead. Overall, the Red Sox are 43-37 and 11-10 against other AL East teams. The Red Sox closed out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a win and are 8-2 across their last 10 games.

At home, the Red Sox are 19-21 this year and 24-16 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 38 games, going 22-16 in those matchups. As for their games as the underdog, the Red Sox are an even 21-21 this year. The Red Sox’ overall series record is 12-9-5 and they have won two straight series on the road.

The Red Sox have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 23-17. They have an average run margin of 1.4 runs per game away from Fenway Park. However, they have not been a good run line bet at home, going just 14-26. Their average run margin at home is -0.2 runs per game.

Today’s O/U line is set at 9.5 runs for the Boston Red Sox game against the San Diego Padres. The Red Sox have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 37-38. When the O/U line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 4-6. The over has hit in their last three games.

Nick Pivetta will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he faced the Reds on the road and finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Pivetta has made 11 starts and has a record of 4-4 with an ERA of 4.06. Opponents are batting .234 off the right-hander this season. Pivetta has made four quality starts this year and is averaging 9.99 strikeouts per nine innings. At home, his ERA is 5.81 compared to 4.06 on the road.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 10th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .253, which is the 6th best mark in the league. Boston has been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season, but they are just 12th in the league in walks.

Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill have been the Red Sox’s top power threats this season, as they are tied for 9th in the league with 16 homers apiece. Devers is also the team’s top run producer, with 42 RBIs. Devers has gone 7/19 in his last five games, with two homers, and has also driven in four runs over that stretch. Jarren Duran has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/23 in his last five games.