San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

From Chase Field in Phoenix, we have the Padres and Diamondbacks facing off in an NL West matchup. This one gets started at 3:10 PM ET, and the Padres are on a two-game winning streak, with their overall record being 93-68. Arizona has lost two straight and they are favored on the money line today at -182, with the odds for a San Diego win sitting at +153.

Brandon Pfaadt is starting for the Diamondbacks, while the Padres are going with Martín Pérez. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s.

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS BETTING PICK

The Pick: OVER 9 Runs

This game will be played at Chase Field at 3:10 ET on Sunday, September 29th.

HOW TO BET THE PADRES VS DIAMONDBACKS:

• We have the Diamondbacks winning by a score of 6 to 5
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Padres to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

San Diego cruised to a 5-0 win over the Diamondbacks in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 9th inning, scoring all five of their runs. As for the Diamondbacks, they only had two hits in the game and didn’t score a run until the 9th.

Randy Vásquez was excellent for the Padres in this one, going six innings and striking out four without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Wandy Peralta closed things out. Eduardo Rodriguez had a rough outing for the Diamondbacks, taking the loss.

Donovan Solano and Kyle Higashioka each homered for the Padres, while Brandon Lockridge scored three times and drove in a run while going 1/4. Xander Bogaerts also had a two-hit game at the plate.

Padres Records & Stats

San Diego is four games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead, and they are 93-68 overall. The Padres have won two straight games, and they are 7-3 over their last 10. So far, they have gone 27-24 against other NL West teams.

At home, the Padres are 45-36 this year, and they have been really good on the road at 48-32. As the road underdog, the Padres have gone 26-17 this year, and they have won two straight as the underdog overall. Their overall series record is 30-16-6, and they are leading the Diamondbacks 2-0 in the series.

San Diego is a strong play on the run line this season, going 84-77 overall. They are 51-29 on the run line on the road, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 1.2 runs per game. They have covered the run line in two straight road games and are on a five-game run line win streak as the underdog.

San Diego’s games have gone over the total 81 times and under 76 times this season. The average over/under line in their games is 8 runs, and the combined run average in their games is 8.8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, their games have gone over six times and under six times. Only 9.3% of their games have had an over/under line set at 9 runs or higher. Their current under streak is at two games.

Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. So far this season, he has made 25 starts and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 4.25. Looking at his overall numbers, Pérez has a WHIP of 1.45 and has issued 3.22 walks per nine innings compared to 7.13 strikeouts. Pérez has turned in eight quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he got the win.

San Diego comes into today’s game as the league’s top hitting team, batting a collective .264. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .325 is 5th best in the MLB. The Padres are also the league’s top team in terms of fewest strikeouts per game.

Over his last seven games, Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 7/29 with two homers, but his batting average is just .241 over that stretch. Xander Bogaerts has been hot for the Padres, batting .345 over his last eight games with a home run. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are both batting over .280 for the season and have 24 homers apiece.

Diamondbacks Records & Stats

Arizona is hosting the Padres today with an overall record of 88-73, which has them nine games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Currently, they are in 3rd place in the division and have gone 27-24 in divisional games. The Diamondbacks have dropped two straight games, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Diamondbacks are 43-37 this season, and they are 45-36 on the road. Arizona has lost two straight games as the favorite, and they are 52-34 when favored this year. As the underdog, the Diamondbacks are 36-39, and their overall series record is 27-19-4.

The Diamondbacks have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 48-33. They have a run line record of 35-45 at home, including a current run line losing streak of two games. Arizona is 36-50 against the run line as the favorite and 47-28 as the underdog.

Arizona has been a high-scoring team this season, with a combined run average of 10.3 runs per game. Their over/under record is 91-62, and their games have averaged a combined 9 runs per game this season. When their over/under line has been set at 9 runs, they have gone 19-13-4. Overall, their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, with 24 games having higher lines and 101 games having lower lines. Their games have gone under the total in each of their last two games.

Brandon Pfaadt will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Giants, as he gets the start for the Diamondbacks vs. the Padres today. In that last outing, he took the loss and gave up four earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last three starts, Pfaadt has allowed at least four earned runs in each outing. His record for the season is 10-10, and his ERA is 4.80. Pfaadt’s ERA at home is 7.57 compared to 4.48 on the road. For the year, he has given up 24 homers. Per nine innings, Pfaadt is averaging 2.09 walks compared to 8.98 strikeouts.

Arizona comes into the game as the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.6 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks have been one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams this season and have the league’s best on-base percentage and are 2nd in both slugging and OPS.

Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez have been the team’s top power threats this season, with Marte leading the team with 35 homers and Suarez right behind him with 29. Marte is also hitting .291 for the season, while Suarez is batting .253. Marte has 93 RBIs this season, which is 2nd on the team and 15th in the league.