New Mexico State Aggies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Pick & Prediction 3/14/24

Betting on today’s Aggies and Hilltoppers game? Catch the action at Von Braun Center in Huntsville, AL, as the Hilltoppers hosts this showdown at 9:00 ET on ESPN+. The over/under for this Conference USA conference contest is set at 147.5 points, with Western Kentucky being favored by -6.5 at home against New Mexico State.

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES VS WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -6.5

This game will be played at Von Braun Center at 9:00 ET on Thursday, March 14th.

WHY BET THE WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 79-67 in favor of the Hilltoppers.
• Not only will Western Kentucky pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -6.5.
• The over/under is currently sitting at 147.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 146 points.

Will New Mexico State Come Through as Road Underdogs?

Despite being the underdog, New Mexico State has been the favorite in seven of their 31 games this season, and they have gone 7-0 in those games. Their overall record is 13-18, and they have won two games in a row.

On the road, the Aggies have struggled mightily, going just 1-14 this season. Their average scoring margin in road games is -15.5 points per game. Their most recent road game was a 77-70 win over FIU, and they are 1-9 in their last 10 road games.

As the underdog, New Mexico State has gone 7-13 against the spread this season. Their overall ATS record is 11-15-1, and on the road, they are 5-10 vs. the spread. In their last 10 games as the underdog, the Aggies are just 2-8 ATS.

Today’s over/under line of 147.5 is higher than the average over/under line in New Mexico State’s games this season (139.9). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total is 139 points.

New Mexico State is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 77 points versus FIU. This output is higher than their season-average of 67.6 points per game. Christian Cook led the scoring for the Aggies, contributing 26 points. Additionally, Kaosi Ezeagu chipped in with 14 points.

Currently, the Aggies’ defense holds the 166th rank in the nation, allowing 71.9 points per game. Against FIU, the Aggies’ defense gave up 70 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, FIU only made 5 free-throws.

Does Western Kentucky Have What it Takes at Home?

Western Kentucky enters today’s game with a 19-11 overall record, including a 9-4 mark at home. They have gone 8-8 in Conference USA games this season and have lost four straight contests.

Over their last 10 games at home, the Hilltoppers have gone 8-2, and they are 10-6 this season when favored. Their average scoring margin at home is +4.7 compared to +1.9 on the road.

When looking at Western Kentucky’s ATS record this season, they have gone 16-11. At home, their ATS mark is 7-6. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Hilltoppers have gone 5-5 vs. the spread.

Western Kentucky’s over/under record this season sits at 13-14. The average scoring total in their games this year is 153.9 points, which is similar to the average OU line of 151.3. Today’s over/under line of 147.5 is lower than the average scoring total in their games, and their last three games have an average scoring total of 167 points.

In their recent matchup, the Western Kentucky offense ended with 79 points against Liberty. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 51.7% and made 5 threes. The team’s scoring leader is Donald McHenry, who holds an average of 15.2 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Brandon Newman is averaging 10.2 points per game this season.

As they prepare for the upcoming game, Western Kentucky is focused on shoring up their defense, as they are currently allowing an average of 75.0 points per game (250th). On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.3 threes per game vs. New Mexico State. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 29.6%.