New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Betting Pick & Prediction 11/24/24

With a money line of -346, the Dolphins are the heavy favorite as they host the Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The Patriots and Dolphins will kick off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 24th, with CBS handling the television coverage. The Patriots are +7 point underdogs on the road, and their money line odds are +274. The over/under line is set at 46 points for this AFC East matchup.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS MIAMI DOLPHINS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Dolphins -7

This game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 24th.

WHY BET THE MIAMI DOLPHINS:

• We have the Dolphins winning this one by a score of 26 to 16
• Not only do we have the Dolphins winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -7
• We see this game finishing below the line of 46 points

Will The Patriots Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Heading into week 12, the Patriots sit at 3-8, putting them 4th in the AFC East. Our power rankings have New England 27th, and we give them just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. They are 2-4 on the road and 1-4 at home this season.

New England has been the underdog in all of their games so far, and they are 4-6-1 against the spread. Their average scoring margin is -6 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-5, with their games averaging 39.1 points compared to an average line of 39.9.

Heading into week 12, the Patriots rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.5, and 31st in yards per game with 281.2. New England ranks 24th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 35.3% success rate, and they are 10th in red zone conversions, scoring on 40.6% of their trips. The Patriots are 13th in passing attempts per game but rank 30th in passing yards, averaging 165.9 per game.

In week 11, Drake Maye threw for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 30 of 40 passes against the Rams. Kendrick Bourne led the team with 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, while Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 73 yards on 20 carries. The Patriots converted 6 of 14 3rd-down attempts and scored on 2 of 5 red zone trips.

In their 28-22 loss to the Rams, the Patriots’ defense struggled to generate pressure, as they failed to record a sack and allowed four passing touchdowns. New England gave up 295 yards through the air on just 18 completions, with the Rams averaging 10.9 yards per attempt in the passing game. The Patriots also allowed the Rams to convert 25% of their third down attempts.

On the ground, the Patriots gave up 107 rushing yards on 24 attempts, with New England’s defense allowing the Rams to gain 4.5 yards per attempt. Additionally, the Patriots had a tough time in the trenches, as they had a -6 differential in tackles for loss.

Are The Dolphins Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

The Dolphins have now won two straight games, including a 34-19 victory over the Raiders in week 11. Miami entered the game as 8-point favorites and covered the spread, improving their record to 4-6. Before that, the Dolphins picked up a road win over the Rams in week 10, winning 23-15 as 2-point underdogs.

Heading into week 12, Miami has a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs, and they sit 18th in our NFL power rankings. Against the spread, the Dolphins are 4-6 this season, but they have covered in three straight games.

Heading into week 12, the Dolphins rank 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 25th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.1, and 22nd in passing yards per game, with 197. Miami ranks 9th in the league in rushing attempts and 11th in rushing yards per game, averaging 122. They are converting 42.6% of their third-down attempts, which is 9th in the NFL, and they also rank 9th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 11, Miami scored 17 points in the 4th quarter, leading to a 34-19 win over the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing 28 of 36 passes. De’Von Achane rushed for 73 yards on 17 carries, and Jonnu Smith had 6 catches for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns.

In their 34-19 win over the Raiders, the Dolphins’ defense allowed 328 yards. Las Vegas struggled to run the ball, with just 16 attempts for 60 yards. Miami defended the pass well, allowing 268 yards through the air, with a 69.8% completion rate against them. The Dolphins did struggle on third down, allowing the Raiders to convert 57.1% of their third downs. Miami also gave up two passing touchdowns.

Miami’s defense recorded three sacks and came up with one interception. They also won the QB hit battle by two but lost the tackles for loss differential.