New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Odds – September 27, 2026
New England visits Jacksonville with both teams at 1-1 and different early profiles: the Patriots have allowed few points, while the Jaguars have scored more. That contrast makes offensive execution central to Sunday's matchup.
Game details and odds
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 1:00 pm EDT · EverBank Stadium
| Team | Spread (American price) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +3 (-118) | +130 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -3 (-102) | -155 |
Total: 45.5 — over -115, under -105.
Draft Kings odds checked September 27, 2026 10:01 UTC. Odds subject to change.
Can New England's defense carry the offense?
The Patriots have allowed 8.0 points and 287.5 yards per game through two games, giving them a clear defensive foundation. Their offense has produced 15.0 points per game, however, and Drake Maye's four interceptions against one touchdown underline the importance of protecting possessions against Jacksonville.
New England's completed games show how much its defense has mattered. The Patriots lost 13-10 at Seattle, then beat Pittsburgh 20-3 at home. Holding both opponents to modest totals kept them competitive when their own scoring was limited, and the Pittsburgh result showed what can happen when they find more offense. The trip to Seattle is the cautionary example: keeping an opponent to 13 points was not enough. New England has yet to score more than 20 in these games, so another tight contest could turn on whether it finishes enough possessions.
Jacksonville's scoring test against a stingy opponent
Jacksonville has averaged 23.5 points and 327.5 yards per game through two games, with Trevor Lawrence accounting for 434 passing yards and four touchdowns. The Jaguars have allowed 15.0 points per game, but their 246.5 passing yards allowed per game leave room for New England to challenge them through the air.
The Jaguars opened with a 34-10 home win over Cleveland, then lost 20-13 at Denver. Those results present a wider scoring range than New England's completed games: Jacksonville produced plenty in its home opener but could not match that output on the road. The Denver loss also showed that allowing 20 points can be enough to put pressure on this offense when its production dips. Returning home offers a chance to recover the scoring rhythm from the Cleveland game, but the two results do not establish which version will appear.
Injury news
New England Patriots: Quintayvious Hutchins – Injured Reserve (Knee); Craig Woodson – Questionable (Shoulder); Dre'Mont Jones – Out (Shoulder); Eli Raridon – Questionable (Thigh); Dell Pettus – Injured Reserve (Ankle).
Jacksonville Jaguars: Albert Regis – Doubtful (Elbow); B.J. Green II – Injured Reserve (Elbow); Sam Mustipher – Injured Reserve (Undisclosed); Patrick Mekari – Injured Reserve (Back); Zach Durfee – Injured Reserve (Upper Body).
Availability checked September 27, 2026 10:01 UTC. Reported statuses may change; final lineups are not confirmed here.
BTB Betting Pick
Winner pick: Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville gets the edge at home after a stronger scoring start, but New England's low points allowed make that advantage uncertain. The Jaguars must avoid the offensive slowdown that marked their Denver loss.
Original winner pick recorded September 26, 2026 19:00 UTC. Subsequent updates retain that selection.