Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Betting Pick & Prediction 1/5/25

FOX will broadcast this week 18 AFC East matchup between the Dolphins and Jets, taking place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. The Dolphins are favored on the road with a money line of -117, while the Jets are at -104. The point spread is close, with the Dolphins at -1 and the over/under line is at 39 points. The game is set for 4:25 ET on Sunday, January 5th.

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS NEW YORK JETS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Dolphins -1

This game will be played at MetLife Stadium at 4:25 ET on Sunday, January 5th.

WHY BET THE MIAMI DOLPHINS:

• We have the Dolphins winning this one by a score of 23 to 17
• Not only do we have the Dolphins winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1
• Look for this game to go over the line of 39 points

Will The Dolphins Pick Up A Win On The Road?

Miami heads into week 18 against the Jets with a 2-game winning streak, including a 20-3 win over the Browns in week 17. This puts the Dolphins at 8-8, leaving them 2nd in the AFC East and 8th in the conference. Our power rankings have them 12th, and they have a 25.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Miami has a -0.4 scoring margin and is 7-9 against the spread. They’ve covered in two straight games, including a 12-point win over the 49ers in week 16. Their O/U record is 7-9, with their games averaging 41.1 points compared to a 44.3-point line.

Heading into week 18, the Dolphins rank 16th in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in points per game (20.3) and 18th in yards per game (324.9). Miami ranks 15th in passing yards, averaging 221.1 per game on 34.4 attempts (9th). On the ground, they are 24th in rushing yards per game (103.8) on 26.6 attempts per game. The Dolphins are 19th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37% success rate.

In week 17, Tyler Huntley threw for 225 yards and a touchdown, completing 22 of 26 passes. He connected with Tyreek Hill 9 times for 105 yards. Huntley also led the team in rushing with 52 yards on 7 carries. Miami scored on both of their red zone trips but struggled on 3rd down, converting just 2 of 11 attempts.

In their 20-3 win over the Browns, the Dolphins’ defense was outstanding, holding Cleveland to just 3 points. They allowed only 162 passing yards and forced the Browns to complete just 51.1% of their passes. Miami defended the run well, allowing 114 yards on 28 attempts, and didn’t give up any touchdowns.

The Dolphins’ secondary picked off one pass and limited the Browns to a 3.4 yards per attempt. Although they only managed one sack, Miami struggled in the run game, losing the tackles for loss differential by a significant margin of -8. Additionally, the Browns converted 41.2% of their third down attempts against Miami.

Will The Jets Win At Home Over The Dolphins?

The Jets enter week 18 against the Dolphins with a 4-12 record, ranking 21st in our power rankings. New York has lost two straight, including a 40-14 defeat to the Bills in week 17. The Jets were 10.5-point underdogs in that game and couldn’t cover the spread. They are 5-11 ATS this season, with a -4.9 average scoring margin.

New York’s O/U record is 9-6-1, with their games averaging 43.1 points. The O/U line has been 42.5. In week 17, the Jets and Bills combined for 54 points, going over the 44.5-point line.

Heading into week 18, the Jets rank 17th in our offensive power rankings. They are 23rd in the NFL in scoring, averaging 19.1 points per game, and 24th in total yards, with 306.2 per game. New York ranks 6th in passing attempts and 17th in passing yards per game, averaging 216.1. On the ground, they are 26th in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards, with just 90.2 per game. The Jets are 14th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 13th in red zone conversion rate.

Aaron Rodgers struggled in week 17, throwing for 112 yards and 2 interceptions on 12/18 passing, with a passer rating of 43. Breece Hall had 45 rushing yards on 10 carries, while Garrett Wilson led the team with 66 receiving yards on 7 catches. The Jets scored all 14 of their points in the 4th quarter against the Bills.

In their 40-14 loss to the Bills, the Jets’ defense gave up 251 passing yards, including three touchdowns. Buffalo’s success in the passing game was aided by averaging 9 yards per attempt. The Jets were unable to generate any sacks and struggled on third downs, allowing the Bills to convert 57.1% of their third down attempts.

On the ground, the Jets did have some success, as they held the Bills to just 97 yards on 34 attempts, averaging 2.9 yards per attempt. However, the Jets’ defense gave up big plays in the passing game, resulting in a tough overall performance.