Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Pick & Prediction 12/25/24

With the over/under line set at 42.5 points, the Chiefs and Steelers will face off on Wednesday, December 25th at 1:00 ET. The Chiefs are the road favorite with a money line of -146, while the Steelers’ money line sits at +123. The game is being televised on NFLX, and the Chiefs are -2.5 point road favorites. Both teams need to add their records, and this AFC matchup is taking place at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

This game will be played at Acrisure Stadium at 1:00 ET on Wednesday, December 25th.

WHY BET THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS:

  • We have the Steelers winning this one by a score of 22 to 21
  • Not only do we have the Steelers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 42.5 points

Will The Chiefs Pick Up A Win On The Road?

With a 14-1 record, the Chiefs have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and winning the AFC West. They are on a 5-game winning streak, including a 27-19 win over the Texans in week 16. Kansas City was favored by 3 points and covered the spread, and the 46 points scored in the game went over the 42.5-point line.

Heading into week 17, the Chiefs rank 6th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +5.2 points per game and are 6-8-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 7-8, with their games averaging 42.3 points per game.

Patrick Mahomes has been consistent over the last three weeks, with passer ratings of 88, 78, and 93 in week 16. Against the Texans, he threw for 260 yards (28/41) and a touchdown without an interception. Xavier Worthy led the team with 7 catches for 65 yards, while Kareem Hunt added 55 rushing yards on 11 carries.

Heading into week 17, the Chiefs rank 8th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage (51%) and are 11th in points per game (23.7). Kansas City is 12th in passing yards per game (225.9) and 15th in rushing (112.9 yards per game).

In their 27-19 win over the Texans, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 84 rushing yards on 17 attempts. They picked off two passes and held Houston to 2-of-5 on fourth down attempts. The Chiefs gave up 227 yards through the air, with Houston completing 59% of their passes, and two passing touchdowns. Additionally, the Chiefs allowed the Texans to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts.

Kansas City’s defense put pressure on the quarterback throughout the game, finishing with two sacks and winning the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. Despite allowing a couple of passing touchdowns, the Chiefs’ defense played well enough to help secure the win.

Will The Steelers Win At Home Over The Chiefs?

Despite a two-game losing streak, the Steelers remain 1st in the AFC North with a 10-5 record. After a week 14 win over the Browns, Pittsburgh has dropped two straight, including a 34-17 loss to the Ravens in week 16. The Steelers were 7-point underdogs in that game, and the 51 points scored went over the 44-point line.

According to our projections, Pittsburgh has a 47.4% chance of winning the division and a 100% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 12th in our NFL power rankings. The Steelers have a +3.6 scoring margin and are 10-5 against the spread this season. Their O/U record is 8-7, with their games averaging 43.5 points per game.

Heading into week 17, the Steelers sit 19th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 23.5 points per game, which ranks 12th in the league. They are 19th in total yards per game, with 324.9, and rank 25th in passing yards, averaging 198.9 per game on 28.7 attempts. On the ground, Pittsburgh is 2nd in rushing attempts and 11th in rushing yards per game, with 126.

In week 16, Russell Wilson threw for 217 yards (22/33), with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Calvin Austin III led the team with 4 catches for 65 yards, while Jaylen Warren had 48 rushing yards on 12 carries. The Steelers scored 7 points in the 3rd quarter against the Ravens but were shut out in the 1st and 4th quarters.

The Steelers’ defense struggled to stop the run in their 34-17 loss to the Ravens, giving up 220 yards on 38 attempts, which is 5.8 yards per attempt. Despite allowing just 198 passing yards, Pittsburgh gave up three passing touchdowns and allowed big plays in the passing game, with the Ravens averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.

Pittsburgh’s defense managed only one sack and allowed the Ravens to convert on 40% of their third downs. The Steelers also struggled to generate consistent pressure, losing the quarterback hit differential by -6 and the tackles for loss differential by -2.