Indiana State Sycamores vs Valparaiso Beacons Betting Pick & Prediction 2/21/24
The Sycamores and Beacons are set to face off at 8:00 ET on ESPN+. The Beacons will host the game at Athletics-Recreation Center in Valparaiso, IN. In this Missouri Valley matchup, Indiana State is favored by -16 vs. Valparaiso. The over/under for the game is 156.5 points.
INDIANA STATE SYCAMORES VS VALPARAISO BEACONS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Valparaiso Beacons +16
This game will be played at Athletics-Recreation Center at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, February 21st.
WHY BET THE VALPARAISO BEACONS:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Beacons.
- Not only will Valparaiso pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +16.
- The over/under is currently sitting at 156.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.
Will the Sycamores Come Through as Road Favorites?
Indiana State is 22-5 overall and 13-3 in Missouri Valley Conference games. They have lost two straight games, including a 74-69 loss to Southern Illinois in their most recent game. The Sycamores are 10-4 on the road this season and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
Indiana State has been favored in 22 of their 27 games this season, going 20-2 in those games. They have an average scoring margin of +2.9 points per game on the road compared to +21.2 points per game at home.
Indiana State has an ATS record of 15-11 this season, including a mark of 6-8 on the road. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Sycamores are just 5-5 vs. the spread.
Indiana State’s over/under record for the season sits at 15-11 and the average scoring total in their games is 156.8 points. Today’s over/under line of 156.5 is very close to their season average OU line of 155.6. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 144 points and their OU record during this span is 1-2. So far this season, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line of 156.5.
In contrast to their season average of 84.3 points per game, the Indiana State had a below average performance. They scored 69 points against Southern Illinois and had a field goal percentage of 44.2%. Leading the team in scoring was Robbie Avila with 30 points. Ryan Conwell also added 16 points for the Sycamores.
On the defensive side, Indiana State is currently hovering around the NCAA’s average for points allowed, conceding an average of 72.3 points per game. Indiana State’s three-point defense is currently 92nd in the country at 6.5 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 42.9% of their shots vs. Indiana State.
Can the Valparaiso Offense Score Enough at Home?
Valparaiso enters this game with a 6-21 overall record, including a 2-14 mark in Missouri Valley Conference play. The Beacons have lost eight straight games, and they are 4-10 at home this season.
As the underdog, Valparaiso has gone just 2-18 this season, and they have been the underdog in 20 of their 27 games. The Beacons’ average scoring margin at home is -7.1 points per game.
Valparaiso’s ATS record this season is 14-11-1, but they have struggled vs the spread at home, going just 5-9 this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Beacons have gone 6-4 vs the spread.
This season, the over/under record for Valparaiso games is 14-12 and today’s line of 156.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (143.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 161 points and their over/under record over their last 10 games is 9-1.
Valparaiso recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 74 points against Missouri State. This output exceeded their season average of 68.2 points per game. Offensively, the Beacons have a season long field goal percentage of 40%, which is 371st in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 259th in percentage and 201st in three-pointers made.
The Beacons’ defense is presently ranked 251st nationally, allowing an average of 75.1 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Valparaiso’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 48.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 37.0% this season.