Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Pick & Prediction 12/1/24

FOX will broadcast the week 13 AFC South matchup between the Texans and Jaguars, which is set to kick off at 1:00 ET. The Jaguars are the home team at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL. The Texans are favored on the road with a point spread of -5 and a money line of -232. The Jaguars’ money line odds are +191, and the over/under line is 43.5 points.

HOUSTON TEXANS VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +5

This game will be played at EverBank Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st.

WHY BET THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS:

• We have the Jaguars winning this one by a score of 24 to 14
• Not only do we have the Jaguars winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 43.5 points

Will The Texans Win As Road Favorites?

Heading into week 13, the Texans sit atop the AFC South with a 7-5 record, including a 3-1 mark in division games. Our projections give them a 90.9% chance of winning the division and a 92.5% chance of making the playoffs. Houston ranks 12th in our NFL power rankings this week.

Against the spread, the Texans are 5-7, with a +1.4 scoring margin. They are 3-6 ATS as favorites and 2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-7-1, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Heading into week 13, the Texans rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in points per game (23.8) and 16th in yards per game (336). Houston has been strong in the 1st quarter, averaging 6.8 points, which ranks 3rd in the league. They are 10th in passing attempts per game and 15th in passing yards, averaging 221.4 yards per game. On the ground, they rank 20th in rushing yards per game (114.6) and 17th in rushing attempts.

In week 12, C.J. Stroud threw for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns but also had 2 interceptions and was sacked 4 times. Joe Mixon struggled, rushing for just 22 yards on 14 carries. Nico Collins led the team with 5 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. Houston converted 23.1% of their 3rd downs (3/13) and scored on 2 of their 4 red zone trips.

Despite coming up with eight sacks and forcing one interception, the Texans’ defense allowed the Titans to convert 72% of their passes and gain 237 passing yards on just 18 completions. Houston’s defense also gave up 132 rushing yards on 33 attempts in their 32-27 loss to the Titans. Overall, the Texans allowed 369 total yards in the game.

However, the Texans did excel in pressuring the quarterback, winning the QB hit differential and recording eight sacks. They also held the Titans to a 28.6% conversion rate on third down.

Are The Jaguars Going Win In At Upset At EverBank Stadium

Jacksonville heads into week 13 against the Texans looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which includes a 52-6 blowout loss to the Lions in week 11. The Jaguars are now 2-9 on the season and sit 28th in our power rankings. We give them a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs and the same odds to win the AFC South.

Jacksonville is 6-5 against the spread, with a 5-2 record as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-4, with their games averaging 47.6 points per game.

Jacksonville’s offense has struggled in recent weeks, with Mac Jones throwing for 138 yards and an interception in week 11 after a 111-yard, 2-interception game in week 10. Trevor Lawrence, who is questionable for week 13, had 169 yards and 2 interceptions in week 9. The Jaguars have also struggled on the ground, with Travis Etienne Jr. rushing for just 27 yards on 12 carries in week 11.

Heading into week 13, Jacksonville ranks 24th in our offensive power rankings and is 23rd in the NFL, scoring 18.9 points per game. They are 30th in the league in yards per game (290.8) and 27th in passing yards per game (189.2). On 3rd down, they rank 30th in the NFL, converting just 31.9% of their attempts.

In their most recent game, the Jaguars’ defense allowed 645 yards and 52 points in a 52-6 loss to the Lions. The Jaguars couldn’t generate any pressure, as they failed to record a sack and only had one hit on the quarterback. The Lions were able to complete 81.8% of their passes for 449 yards and four touchdowns.

On the ground, the Jaguars gave up 196 rushing yards on 43 attempts. Jacksonville struggled to get off the field, allowing the Lions to convert on 60% of their third down attempts.