Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 8/11/24

At 1:35 PM ET, the Astros and Red Sox face off in an AL matchup. This one is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, and the Astros are 61-55 compared to the Red Sox at 61-54. Houston is currently on a four-game winning streak, and they are first in the AL West. The Red Sox are +118 on the money line, and the over/under line is sitting at 10.5 runs.

Looking at Sunday’s starting pitching matchup, Hunter Brown goes for the Astros, while the Red Sox are starting James Paxton. On the money line, the Astros are the favorites, with their odds sitting at -139. The Red Sox are currently in third place in the AL East, and they are on a three-game losing streak.

BOSTON RED SOX VS HOUSTON ASTROS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +118

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 1:35 ET on Sunday, August 11th.

HOW TO BET THE ASTROS VS RED SOX:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 6 to 5
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Red Sox to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

Houston rallied for two runs in the 8th inning in the most recent game of this Astros vs. Red Sox series. The Astros scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up two in the top of the 8th, picking up a 5-4 win. Heading into the game, the Astros were at -103 on the money line.

Spencer Arrighetti pitched well for the Astros in this one, going seven innings and giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with 13 strikeouts but issued one walk. Josh Hader closed things out for Houston. Brad Keller had a rough outing for the Red Sox, taking the loss.

Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman each homered for the Astros, while Zach Dezenzo scored twice and drove in a run while going 2/4. Victor Caratini also had a two-hit game at the plate.

Astros Records & Stats

The Astros are on a four-game winning streak, and they are 61-55 overall this season. They are currently tied with the Mariners for the AL West lead, and they are 21-18 against other teams in the division. Houston has taken the first two games of this series vs. the Red Sox.

At home, the Astros have gone 32-26 this season, and they are an even 29-29 on the road. As the road favorite, the Astros are 16-18 this year and 45-39 when favored overall. Houston has an overall series record of 20-16-1 this year.

Despite being an underdog in more games than they are favored, the Astros have a winning record against the run line this season at 59-57. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 32-26 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.2.

The Houston Astros are on the road against the Boston Red Sox today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 10.5 runs. The combined run average for Astros games this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 46-66. The average over/under line for Astros games this season is 9 runs, and when the line has been set at 10.5 runs, the over/under record is 0-4. Only 1.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 10.5 runs, with just two games having that high of a line.

Hunter Brown gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 9-7 with an ERA of 3.98. Brown’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.37. In his 22 starts, he has turned in 13 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Brown finished with a no-decision against the Rangers. In that start, he went six innings and gave up one earned run on three hits. Before that outing, he had won three straight starts.

Yordan Alvarez has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Astros, going 12/34 in his last nine games with four homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .304 with a league-leading 62 RBIs. Alvarez’s 24 homers is also the best mark on the team. Kyle Tucker is also a big power threat for the Astros, as he is 2nd on the team with 19 homers and comes into the game batting .266.

As a team, the Astros are 2nd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and have the 8th best slugging percentage in the league. Currently, the Astros have five players on a hitting streak, led by Alex Bregman, who has hit safely in five straight games.

Red Sox Records & Stats

Boston will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak today, as they are down 0-2 in their series vs. the Astros. Currently, the Red Sox are 61-54 overall, which has them 3rd in the AL East, 7.5 games behind the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they have gone 14-13 in divisional games.

At home, the Red Sox are 27-30 this season compared to 34-24 on the road. As the favorite, Boston has gone 32-24 and 29-30 as the underdog. The Red Sox have won three straight series and have an overall series record of 19-13-5 this year.

When betting the run line on the Red Sox this season, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 33-25. Boston’s average run margin for the season is just +0.3, but they have been outscored by 0.4 runs per game at home. The Red Sox have been favored in 56 games this season and are just 20-36 against the run line in those contests.

Despite the high over/under line of 10.5 runs, the Boston Red Sox have played to a combined run average of just 9.7 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 60-49, with the average line set at 9 runs per game. When the line has been set at 10.5 runs, the Red Sox have gone over the total in three of five games, and only 1% of their games have had a higher line than today’s.

James Paxton is coming off a solid outing in which he picked up the win. Against the Royals on August 5th, he went six innings, giving up just two earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Paxton has made 20 starts and has a record of 9-3. His ERA for the season is 4.42, along with a WHIP of 1.44. Opponents have a batting average of .243 off Paxton this year. The left-hander has made seven quality starts and is averaging 6.59 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has issued 4.52 walks per nine innings.

As a team, the Red Sox are averaging 5 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 2nd best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .261. One of the keys to their strong offense has been their ability to limit strikeouts, as they are 27th in the league in strikeouts per game.

Over his last nine games, Jarren Duran has gone 13/40, which is good for a batting average of .325. He also has one home run and five RBIs during that stretch. Rafael Devers has been the Red Sox’s top power threat this season, as his 25 homers are the best on the team and 9th in the league.