Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Betting Pick & Prediction 1/12/25

The Broncos are +358 on the money line as they head to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a Wild Card round matchup. The Bills are the heavy favorite at -468, with the Broncos at +8.5 on the point spread. The game is being televised on CBS, with a 1:00 ET kickoff at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The over/under line is set at 47 points.

DENVER BRONCOS VS BUFFALO BILLS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Denver Broncos +8.5

This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 12th.

WHY BET THE DENVER BRONCOS:

• We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 32 to 19
• Not only do we have the Broncos winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +8.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 47 points

Will The Broncos Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Denver finished the regular season with a 10-7 record, placing them 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference. After starting the season ranked 17th in our power rankings, the Broncos went 4-5 on the road and 6-2 at home. Against the spread, they were 12-5, including an 8-0 record as favorites. Their O/U record was 11-6, with their games averaging 43.3 points (O/U line: 41.3).

In week 18, the Broncos bounced back from two straight losses with a 38-0 win over the Chiefs. They were 11-point favorites and covered the spread, but the 38 points fell short of the 40.5-point O/U line. In week 17, Denver lost 30-24 to the Bengals, and in week 16, they fell 34-27 to the Chargers.

Heading into the Wild Card round, the Broncos rank 16th in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 25, and 19th in yards per game, with 324.6. Denver ranks 20th in passing yards per game (212.4) and 16th in rushing yards per game (112.2), while ranking 13th in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 22nd in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 3, Bo Nix threw for 216 yards on 25/36 passing, after throwing for 246 yards in week 2 and 138 yards in week 1. Courtland Sutton led the team with 7 catches for 68 yards in week 3, and Tyler Badie had 9 carries for 70 yards. Denver scored 14 points in the 1st quarter against the Buccaneers, but only managed 6 points the rest of the game.

Denver’s defense was dominant in their 38-0 win over the Chiefs, allowing just 98 yards. The Broncos’ secondary was outstanding, holding the Chiefs to 71 yards passing and not allowing a single point. They also limited Kansas City to a 58.8% completion percentage and allowed just a 4.2 yards per attempt.

Against the run, the Broncos gave up only 27 yards on 11 attempts. They recorded five sacks and held the Chiefs to a 11.1% third-down conversion rate. Denver also had nine more quarterback hits than the Chiefs in the game.

Are The Bills Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

The Bills finished the season 13-4, putting them 2nd in the AFC and 1st in the AFC East. After back-to-back losses in weeks 4 and 5, Buffalo bounced back with three straight wins, including a 37-point victory over the Jaguars in week 3. They also took down the Dolphins in week 2 and the Cardinals in week 1, but they couldn’t cover the 6.5-point spread against Arizona, winning by 6.

Buffalo is 10-7 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +9.2 points. Their O/U record is 11-6, with the over hitting in their last two games. The average line in Bills games has been 46.3 points, while the teams have combined for 52.5 points per game.

Josh Allen is coming off a big game in week 3, throwing for 263 yards and 4 touchdowns with a passer rating of 142 against the Jaguars. He has not thrown an interception in his first three games this season. Khalil Shakir led the team with 6 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown in week 3.

Buffalo is averaging 30.9 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL, and they are 10th in yards per game with 359.1. They rank 7th in 3rd down conversions but have struggled in the red zone, ranking 30th in conversion percentage.

In the Bills’ 23-16 loss to the Patriots, Buffalo’s defense allowed 232 passing yards on 22 completions. Despite this, they did force New England to a 33.3% third-down conversion rate. The Patriots finished with 309 total yards, and Buffalo limited them to 77 rushing yards on 30 attempts.

Buffalo’s defense managed one sack and had more quarterback hits and tackles for loss than the Patriots. New England did find the endzone once through the air, and opposing quarterbacks completed 73.3% of their passes against the Bills.