Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Pick & Prediction 5/15/24

The Mavericks and Thunder are all tied up at two games apiece heading into game five of this first-round Western Conference series. Game five is set to tip-off at 9:30 PM ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and can be seen on TNT. The over/under line for Wednesday’s game is 213 points, and the Thunder are favored by 4.5 points. On the money line, the Thunder are at -178, while the Mavericks are at +148.

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER BETTING PICK

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +4.5

This game will be played at Paycom Center at 9:30 ET on Wednesday, May 15th.

WHY BET THE DALLAS MAVERICKS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 115-113 in favor of the Thunder.
• Our projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists.
• From the field, we have the Thunder finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.5% and knocking down 14 threes.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder in their most recent game against the Mavericks, as he scored 34 points and grabbed eight rebounds. He also led all scorers in the game. P.J. Washington was the leading scorer for the Mavericks with 21 points. Going into the game, the Mavericks were favored by 1.5 points, but the Thunder pulled off the upset with a 100-96 win.

The Thunder had a big 4th quarter to come back and win the game, as they outscored the Mavericks 35-27. Going into the game, the over/under line was at 214.5 points, and the teams fell 18.5 points short of that mark. The Thunder also covered the spread as 1.5-point underdogs.

Can Dallas Secure a Road Victory?

This season, the Mavericks have an average over/under line of 232.6, which is higher than today’s line of 213. On average, their games have seen 230.8 points scored.

Dallas has gone 41-51 on the over/under this season, and their last two games have gone under the O/U line. Today’s line is 2 points lower than their last game, which finished with 196 points.

On the season, the Mavericks have a record of 14-20 as the underdog and are 17-17 ATS in those games. As the underdog, they have an average scoring differential of -5.6 points per game.

In their most recent game, the Mavericks lost to the Thunder by a score of 100-96. They were favored by 1.5 points in that game, giving them an ATS loss.

In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are currently in 5th place with a record of 50-32. Against Western Conference opponents, they are 31-21 compared to 19-11 in non-conference games.

On the road, the Mavericks are 28-18 straight up and 30-16 ATS. Their ATS record for the season is 54-38, and they are 17-17 as the underdog.

For the season, Luka Doncic is averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds. Over his last five games, he has hit just 37.9% of his shots and 25.6% of his threes but still averaged 23.2 points per game. P.J. Washington is averaging 12.9 points and 5.6 rebounds for the season but has averaged 20.2 points and 8 rebounds in his last five games while hitting 4.6 threes per game.

Dallas is averaging 117.9 points per game this season, which is 8th in the league. Their home scoring average is 117.2 compared to 115.8 on the road. The Mavericks are 4th in made threes per game at 14.6 but just 15th in three-point shooting percentage.

When it comes to points allowed per game, the Mavericks are 17th in the league at 114.3. On the road, they are giving up 115.0 points per game, which is also 16th in the NBA.

Over their last five games, Dallas has been the 9th best defense in the league, allowing just 105.8 points per game. However, during that stretch, they have struggled to keep opponents off the free-throw line, ranking 28th in made free throws allowed.

On the season, opposing teams have scored more than their season average 61.0% of the time vs. the Mavericks. When it comes to three-point shooting, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average 50.0% of the time.

Can The Thunder Secure a Home Victory?

Today’s game is a rematch of the Thunder’s last game, which they won 100-96 as 1.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a combined scoring total of 196 points, which was below the O/U line of 214.5.

Oklahoma City is the favorite today (-4.5), and they have a 52-15 record as the favorite this season. In games where they are favored, they have gone 39-28 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +10.6 points per game.

The Thunder are currently in 1st place in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 36-16 compared to 21-9 in non-conference games.

At home, the Thunder have an average scoring margin of +12.8 points per game. Their ATS record at home is 29-16, while they are 27-22 on the road. Overall, they are 29-16 ATS at home and 23-22 ATS on the road.

Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 46-43-1, and their last two games have gone under the posted total. Today’s O/U line is set at 213, and the Thunder have played just three games with lower O/U lines than that.

The Thunder have an average over/under line of 230.6 points per game this season, and their games have averaged a combined scoring total of 230.1 points.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 46.5% from the field. Jalen Williams has averaged 18.4 points and 5.4 assists in his last five games. Overall, the Thunder are the NBA’s 3rd best scoring team at 120.1 points per game.

For the season, the Thunder are the top three-point shooting team in the league but are just 16th in three-point attempts. Overall, they are 3rd in scoring at 120.1 points per game. Looking at their home games, they are averaging 122.1 points per game.

When it comes to defense, the Thunder have been one of the best in the league this season, ranking 9th in points allowed per game at 111.2. Oklahoma City has been especially tough at home, giving up just 109.2 points per contest, which is the 7th best mark in the NBA.

Over their last five games, the Thunder have been even stingier, allowing just 100.8 points per game. During that stretch, opponents have struggled to find their shooting stroke, hitting just 41.5% of their attempts from the field.

One area where Oklahoma City has struggled this season is defending the three-point line. On the year, they are 21st in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.0%. However, over their last five games, they have been much better in that regard, holding opponents to just 34.8% shooting from beyond the arc.