Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Betting Pick & Prediction 11/24/24

With a money line of -558, the Commanders are the heavy favorite as they face the Cowboys on Sunday, November 24th at 1:00 ET on FOX. The Commanders are favored by -10 in this week 12 matchup, which is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD. The over/under line is set at 44.5 points.

DALLAS COWBOYS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +10

This game will be played at Northwest Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 24th.

WHY BET THE DALLAS COWBOYS:

• We have the Commanders winning this one by a score of 24 to 23
• Even though we like the Commanders to win, our ATS pick is to take the Cowboys at +10
• Look for this game to go over the line of 44.5 points

Will The Cowboys Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Dallas heads into week 12 against Washington looking to snap a five-game losing streak, which includes a 34-10 home loss to the Texans in week 11. This dropped the Cowboys to 3-7, leaving them 15th in our power rankings and giving them just a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs. They are now 3rd in the NFC East with a 1-1 division record.

Against the spread, Dallas is 2-8 and has failed to cover in five straight games. They were 7-point underdogs against the Texans in week 11. The O/U line was 41.5, with the teams combining for 44 points. The Cowboys’ O/U record is 6-4 this season.

Heading into week 12, the Cowboys rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the league in passing attempts per game (41.1), resulting in 240.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 7th. However, they are 23rd in points per game, averaging 18.7. Dallas has struggled on the ground, ranking 28th in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards per game (81.7). On 3rd down, they rank 23rd with a conversion rate of 35.6% but are 2nd in red zone conversion percentage.

Cooper Rush threw for 354 yards (32/55) in week 11, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, but Dallas scored just 10 points, all in the 2nd quarter. Rico Dowdle led the team with 28 rushing yards on 10 carries, while CeeDee Lamb had 8 receptions for 93 yards. Dallas has failed to score in the 4th quarter in their last three games.

In their 34-10 loss to the Texans, the Cowboys’ defense gave up 141 rushing yards on just 25 attempts, allowing Houston to control the game on the ground with 5.6 yards per attempt. Despite this, Dallas did limit the Texans to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down. They also defended the pass well, not giving up any touchdowns through the air and holding Houston to 250 passing yards.

The Cowboys’ defense managed one interception and held the Texans to a 67.6% completion rate. However, they struggled to generate consistent pressure, finishing with only one sack and losing both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

Are The Commanders Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Washington enters week 12 with a 7-4 record, putting them 2nd in the NFC East despite two straight losses. After a narrow home loss to the Steelers in week 10, the Commanders couldn’t bounce back in week 11, falling 28-16 to the Eagles. Washington was a 4.5-point underdog in that game and failed to cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 7-3-1 this season.

According to our projections, the Commanders have an 87.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 15.1% chance of winning the division. They currently rank 13th in our NFL power rankings and have a +5.9 scoring margin this season. Their O/U record is 7-4, with their games averaging 50.1 points per contest.

Heading into week 12, the Commanders rank 3rd in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in points per game (28) and 6th in total yards, averaging 366.7 per game. Washington has been run-heavy, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 6th in rushing yards, while sitting 24th in passing attempts and 14th in passing yards. They are 8th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions and rank 2nd in red zone attempts, but their 8.7% conversion rate in the red zone ranks 26th.

Jayden Daniels threw for 191 yards and a touchdown in week 11, completing 22 of 32 passes and posting a passer rating of 81. He was sacked 3 times and threw an interception. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team with 63 rushing yards on 16 carries, while Austin Ekeler had 8 catches for 89 yards.

Washington’s defense gave up 228 rushing yards to the Eagles in their 26-18 loss, with Philadelphia averaging 5.7 yards per attempt on the ground. Despite this, they did a good job against the pass, allowing just 206 yards through the air and no passing touchdowns. The Commanders also held the Eagles to a 64.3% completion rate.

On third downs, however, Washington struggled, allowing the Eagles to convert 56.2% of their chances. They did manage two sacks and had a positive quarterback hit differential, but they were at a -5 disadvantage in tackles for loss.