Citadel Bulldogs vs Mercer Bears Betting Pick & Prediction 3/8/24
Looking to win big? The Bulldogs and Bears face off at 5:00 ET on ESPN+. The Bears are hosting the game at Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, NC. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 138 points, and Mercer is favored by -4 to win at home against Citadel.
CITADEL BULLDOGS VS MERCER BEARS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Mercer Bears -4
This game will be played at Harrah’s Cherokee Center at 5:00 ET on Friday, March 8th.
WHY BET THE MERCER BEARS:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-69 in favor of the Bears.
- Not only will Mercer pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -4.
- The over/under is currently sitting at 138 points, and we like the over with a projected 145 points.
Can the Bulldogs Offense Score Enough in Asheville?
Despite being 2-19 as an underdog this season, Citadel has been the underdog in 21 of their 31 games, including tonight’s matchup against Mercer. The Bulldogs have gone 0-5 on the road and 0-3 in their last three road games.
Coming off a 92-80 loss to Samford, Citadel is just 11-20 overall this season and has lost two straight games. Their record in Southern Conference play is 3-15.
As the underdog this season, the Citadel Bulldogs have gone 9-11-1 against the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is just 7-8. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Bulldogs are 5-5 vs. the spread.
Today’s over/under line of 138 for the Citadel-Mercer game is right in line with the average over/under line of 140.4 in the Bulldogs’ games this season. So far, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 149 points.
Citadel’s offense had a good outing, putting up 80 points against Samford. They achieved a 49.1% field goal percentage and went 18/26 from the free-throw line. The team’s top scorer is AJ Smith, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 16.5, while Elijah Morgan also carries a PPG average of 14.3 into the game.
At this time, the Bulldogs’ defense is positioned 144th in the country, permitting 71.1 points per game. Against Samford in their most recent game, the Citadel defense gave up a total of 92 points while allowing Samford to hit 51% of their shots.
Do the Bears Have a Shot at a Home Win?
With a record of 8-5 at home this season, Mercer will look to extend their five-game home win streak when they take on Citadel. They have gone 6-4 as the favorite this season.
Most recently, the Bears defeated Furman by a score of 82-75. Over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 6-4.
As the favorite, Mercer has an ATS record of 5-4-1 this season and an overall ATS mark of 15-12-1. At home, the Bears are 9-4 vs. the spread and their last 3 home ATS mark is 3-0. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Mercer has gone 5-4-1.
Today’s over/under line of 138 is lower than the average over/under line in Mercer’s games this season (140.3). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total in those games is 158 points.
Mercer’s offense is coming off a strong performance vs. Furman, finishing the game with a total of 82 points. Their season average is now 71.2 points per game. Currently leading the team in scoring is Jalyn McCreary who comes into today’s matchup averaging 15.8. David Thomas also heads into the game with a PPG average of 10.3.
Mercer’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 71.8 points per game. So far, the Mercer defense is giving up an average of 8.7 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.8 times per game (490th).