Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction 5/1/24

At 4:10 PM ET, the Reds and Padres will square off in an NL matchup. Wednesday’s matchup is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the forecast calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the low 60s. Cincinnati comes in with a record of 16-14, while the Padres are 15-18.

Joe Musgrove is starting for the Padres, and he is up against Graham Ashcraft for the Reds. San Diego is the favorite at -137 over the Reds at +115. The over/under line is at 8 runs.

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS CINCINNATI REDS BETTING PICK

The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline -137

This game will be played at PETCO Park at 4:10 ET on Wednesday, May 1st.

HOW TO BET THE REDS VS PADRES:

• We have the Padres winning by a score of 6 to 5
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Reds to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over

San Diego picked up a 6-4 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 5th inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Reds, they scored two in the 6th and added their final two runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Padres were favored at -170 on the money line.

Yu Darvish got the start for the Padres, going just five innings but not giving up a run. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued five walks. Nick Martinez only went five innings for the Reds, giving up three earned runs on six hits.

Jurickson Profar had a three-hit game for the Padres, while Manny Machado drove in three runs. Jeimer Candelario hit the game’s only home run and drove in three for the Reds.

Reds Records & Stats

Cincinnati’s overall record is 16-14 heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Padres. They are 2.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead, and they are 1-2 in divisional games this year. The Reds dropped the series opener vs. the Padres but won the final game of their series vs. the Rangers.

So far, the Reds have been good as the favorite, going 10-4, and they are 6-10 as the underdog. As for their overall series record, the Reds are 4-4-1 this year.

The Reds have been a profitable run line team this season, going 17-13 overall. They have been especially good against the run line on the road, going 9-5. Their average run differential is +0.7 runs per game, and they have a +1.0 run differential on the road. They have been a favorite in 14 of their games and have gone 9-5 against the run line in those contests.

The Reds have played 29 games this season, and their over/under record is 16-13. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game, and their average over/under line is 9 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, their record is 3-2. Overall, 60% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs, and 23.3% have had lower lines.

Graham Ashcraft is getting the start for the Reds on the road against the Padres. He’s been solid in each of his first three starts, picking up a win in each of his last two outings. Ashcraft has been able to rack up the strikeouts, as he has 16 Ks in 16 2/3 innings of work.

Elly De La Cruz has been the Reds’ top hitter so far this season, as he is batting .279 with a team-leading eight home runs and 19 RBIs. He has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 7/29 in his last eight games with two homers. Will Benson is also coming off a strong eight-game stretch, going 9/33 with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, Benson is batting just .214.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been a good home run hitting team so far, but are batting just .220, which is 21st in the league. Cincinnati is also near the bottom of the league in terms of strikeouts, averaging nine per game.

Padres Records & Stats

San Diego is 4th in the NL West heading into today’s game vs. the Reds. The Padres are 15-18 overall, putting them 4.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres are 8-8 against other NL West teams this year. The Padres won the most recent game of this series vs. the Reds after dropping the first game.

At home, the Padres are just 7-12 this year. San Diego has been better on the road, going 8-6. So far, they are an even 10-10 as the favorite and 5-8 as the underdog. The Padres’ overall series record is 4-5-2, and they have lost two straight series at home.

San Diego has been a tough team to figure out on the run line this season. They have a run line record of 16-17 overall, but they have been much better on the road, going 11-3. They are just 5-14 at home on the run line. The Padres have been an underdog in 13 games and have gone 8-5 on the run line in those contests. They have been favored in 20 games and have gone 8-12 on the run line in those games.

San Diego’s games have gone over the total in 17 of 32 games this season, and the over/under line for today’s game is 8 runs. The Padres’ games have averaged 9.6 runs per game, and the over/under line has been set at 8 runs for their games on average this season. In their last 10 games, the over/under line has been set at 8 runs four times, and the over/under record in those games is 3-4-1.

Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Reds at home. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 3-3 with a 6.94 ERA. Musgrove’s WHIP for the season is 1.66, and opponents are batting .319 off the right-hander this year. In his last outing, Musgrove took the loss, going just 3 2/3 innings and giving up seven earned runs on four homers. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has made three quality starts and is averaging 6.94 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego comes into the game as one of the league’s top home run hitting teams, and they have been even better on the road this season in terms of scoring runs, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. The Padres are also one of the league’s top batting average teams, hitting a combined .250.

Jurickson Profar has been on a tear for the Padres, going 11/26 in his last seven games with two homers. For the season, he is batting .318 and has an OBP of .413. Profar is also on a seven-game hitting streak. Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar are tied for 2nd on the team with four homers apiece.