Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/24

The Falcons and Broncos will face off at 4:05 ET on Sunday, November 17th at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. The Broncos are the favorite with a point spread of -2.5 and a money line of -134. This non-conference matchup is being televised on FOX, and the Falcons’ money line odds are +112. The over/under line is set at 44 points.

ATLANTA FALCONS VS DENVER BRONCOS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2.5

This game will be played at Empower Field at Mile High at 4:05 ET on Sunday, November 17th.

WHY BET THE ATLANTA FALCONS:

• We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 21 to 19
• Even though we like the Broncos to win, our ATS pick is to take the Falcons at +2.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 44 points

Will The Falcons Pick Up A Win On The Road?

Atlanta heads into week 11 with a 6-4 record, which has them sitting atop the NFC South at 4-1 in division play. Our projections give the Falcons an 85.5% chance of winning the division and an 86.9% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 14th in our power rankings. So far, Atlanta has gone 3-3 at home and 3-1 on the road.

Against the spread, the Falcons are 5-5, with a +0.2 scoring margin. They are 4-4 as favorites and 1-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-6, with the under hitting in their last two games. Their matchups have averaged 47.4 points, compared to an average line of 46.6.

Atlanta’s offense ranks 11th in our power rankings, averaging 23.8 points per game, which is also 11th in the NFL. They are 5th in passing yards per game, with 250.4, on 33.5 attempts per game. On the ground, they rank 12th in rushing yards per game, with 124.7, on 26.9 attempts per game. They are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 38.1%, and their red zone conversion rate is 29%, which is also 17th in the NFL.

Kirk Cousins threw for 306 yards in week 10, going 23/38, with one interception and no touchdowns. Bijan Robinson rushed for 116 yards on 20 carries, scoring twice, and Drake London led the team with 8 catches for 97 yards. The Falcons scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter against the Saints but were shut out in the 1st and 4th quarters.

Despite the loss, the Falcons’ defense held the Saints to 269 passing yards on just 16 completions in their most recent game. New Orleans won a close one, 20-17, with Atlanta giving up two passing touchdowns. The Falcons’ defense struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record any sacks and had a -8 differential in quarterback hits.

Atlanta gave up 365 total yards, with 96 coming on 27 rushing attempts. The Falcons also allowed an average of 10.8 yards per pass attempt in the game.

Will The Broncos Win At Home Over The Falcons?

After a week 8 win over the Panthers, the Broncos have now dropped two straight games, bringing their record to 5-5. This includes a 41-10 loss to the Ravens in week 9 and a 16-14 loss to the Chiefs in week 10. Despite the loss to Kansas City, Denver managed to cover the spread as 7-point underdogs. They are 7-3 against the spread this season, with a +2 scoring margin.

Heading into week 11, the Broncos rank 25th in our power rankings and have a 34.5% chance of making the playoffs. They are 3rd in the AFC West with a 1-2 division record and are 2-4 in conference games. Denver is 2-2 at home and 3-3 on the road.

Heading into week 11, the Broncos rank 27th in our offensive power rankings. They are 19th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 19.7 points per game, and they rank 24th in total offense with 303.7 yards per game. Denver is 27th in passing yards per game (186.6) despite ranking 12th in pass attempts. On the ground, they average 117.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 20th in the league.

Bo Nix posted a passer rating of 115 in week 10, throwing for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22/30 passing. Courtland Sutton led the team with 6 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. Denver scored all 14 of their points in the 2nd quarter against the Chiefs, after being shut out in the 1st quarter for the 3rd consecutive game.

In their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs, the Broncos’ defense allowed 243 passing yards and held Kansas City to 57 yards rushing on 19 attempts. They recorded four sacks and limited the Chiefs to a 43.8% third-down conversion rate. Despite this, the Broncos gave up one passing touchdown and allowed Kansas City to finish with 300 total yards.

The Broncos’ defense was effective in generating pressure, as they had four sacks and won the quarterback hit battle with a +4 differential. However, they struggled to contain the Chiefs’ passing game, as Kansas City completed 66.7% of their passes and averaged 5.8 yards per attempt. This tough defeat saw the Broncos’ record drop to 0-2.