Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Prediction 9/19/24

Thursday’s Braves vs. Reds game has a first pitch set for 1:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Braves are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -206 compared to the Reds at +173. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.

Chris Sale will start for the Braves, while Julian Aguiar will go for the Reds. Atlanta is 82-70 this season, while the Reds are 74-79. This game will be televised on BSSO, and the forecast in Cincinnati calls for temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with scattered clouds.

CINCINNATI REDS VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline +173

This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 1:10 ET on Thursday, September 19th.

HOW TO BET THE BRAVES VS REDS:

• We have the Reds winning by a score of 5 to 4
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Reds to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

The most recent game o of this Braves and Reds series took place on the road for Atlanta. The Braves went into the matchup as slight favorites at -139 and ended up winning the game 7-1. Heading into the game, the Braves had scored the most runs in the National League, while the Reds had the third-fewest.

Spencer Schwellenbach started for the Braves and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with five strikeouts and two walks. Jakob Junis only went six innings for the Reds but gave up just one run on two hits.

Marcell Ozuna and Michael Harris II each homered for the Braves, while Gio Urshela went 2/4 with three RBIs. Matt Olson also had a two-hit game at the plate.

Braves Records & Stats

With an overall record of 82-70, the Braves are 3rd in the NL East and trail the Phillies by nine games for the division lead. Atlanta is 24-22 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves will be on the road today vs. the Reds, and they are 40-37 on the road compared to 42-33 at home.

This season, the Braves have been the favorite in 121 games, and they have gone 69-52 in those games. As the underdog, Atlanta is 13-18 and 29-23 as the favorite on the road. Atlanta’s overall series record is 26-17-7, and they are tied in their current series vs. the Reds.

When betting the run line, the Braves have been a solid play on the road this season, going 41-36. They have a run differential of +1.0 runs per game away from home, compared to -0.1 runs per game at home. Overall, their run line record is 72-80, with an average run differential of +0.5 runs per game.

When the Braves are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Atlanta’s games have averaged 8.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 57-90. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 14-26. So far this season, 29.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Left-hander Chris Sale gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Reds on the road. Sale has made 28 starts this year and has a record of 17-3 with a league-leading ERA of 2.35. In his 28 appearances, he has turned in 18 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. Sale has been especially tough at home, going 10-0 with a 2.75 ERA compared to 7-3 with a 2.42 ERA on the road. Overall, he has a WHIP of 1.00 and is averaging 11.42 strikeouts per nine innings.

So far this season, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per game, compared to just 3.9 at home. Overall, they are the league’s 6th best home run hitting team and have the 13th best team batting average at .241. Atlanta has been swinging the bats well of late, with Michael Harris II going 11/36 in his last eight games, including four homers.

Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves’ top hitter this season, batting .306 with 38 homers and 100 RBIs. His 100 RBIs are 9th best in the league. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 26 homers, but he is hitting just .241 this season.

Reds Records & Stats

Cincinnati is 74-79 overall and is 14.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Reds are also 4th in the division, trailing the Cubs by 3.5 games for the 3rd spot in the division. They are 21-25 against other teams in the NL Central this year.

The Reds have gone 6-4 across their last ten games and are 37-40 at home this year. On the road, they are 37-39. So far, they have been the favorite in 66 games, and they are 33-33 in those games. As the underdog, the Reds are 41-46 this year, which includes a home mark of 16-13 as the underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 19-27-3, and they are tied in their current series vs. the Braves.

When betting the run line on the Cincinnati Reds, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road this season. Their overall run line record is 83-70, but they are 47-29 against the run line on the road compared to 36-41 at home. The Reds have an average run margin of +0.1 runs per game this season, and their average run margin in winning games is +3.8 runs per game.

The Cincinnati Reds are playing at home today against the Atlanta Braves, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Reds games this season is 8.7 runs, and their over/under record on the year is 71-75. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Reds’ record is 19-16. Overall, 47.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Julian Aguiar will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Twins on September 13th, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and coming away with the win. Looking at his overall numbers, Aguiar has made six starts and has a record of 2-0. His ERA for the season is 4.88, along with a WHIP of 1.23. Aguiar has made two quality starts this year and is averaging just 4.88 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed six home runs. Per nine innings, he is giving up 3.25 walks.

Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ leader in home runs, and he is also 2nd on the team in RBIs. De La Cruz is batting .257 for the season and has an on-base percentage of .341. Over his last five games, TJ Friedl has gone 9/19 with two homers and six RBIs. This has helped him move his season batting average up to .231.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. Their team batting average of .233 is 18th in the league, and they are also one of the worst teams in terms of strikeouts. Overall, they are 15th in home runs and have the league’s 15th best slugging percentage.