Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Pick & Prediction 1/13/24
Planning on watching today’s Crimson Tide and Bulldogs game? Catch the action at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, MS, as the Bulldogs hosts this showdown at 8:30 ET on SECN. The over/under for this Southeastern conference contest is set at 155.5 points, with the Bulldogs being the favored team playing at home against the Crimson Tide.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE VS MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Mississippi State Bulldogs -2
This game will be played at Humphrey Coliseum at 8:30 ET on Saturday, January 13th.
WHY BET THE MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-69 in favor of the Bulldogs.
- Not only will Mississippi State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -2.
- The over/under is currently sitting at 155.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 146 points.
Will the Crimson Tide Defense Show Up on the Road?
Alabama will be the underdog for just the third time this season, as they have gone 0-3 in those games. They are coming off a 74-47 win over South Carolina, and they have won four games in a row. On the road this season, the Crimson Tide have gone 3-4, and their average scoring margin is +3.3 points per game.
Alabama is 10-5 overall this season, and they have gone 2-0 in Southeastern Conference games. In their last ten games on the road, the Crimson Tide have gone 4-6, and they are 2-1 in their last three road games.
Against the spread, Alabama has gone 8-7 this season. On the road, their ATS record is 2-5, and over their last 10 road games, they are just 2-8 vs. the spread. As the underdog, the Crimson Tide have gone 1-2 vs. the spread this year and are 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games as the underdog.
Alabama’s over/under record this season is 10-5 and the average scoring total in their games is 164.5 points. Today’s over/under line of 155.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (159.4). So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total in those games is 143 points.
Against South Carolina, the Alabama had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 90.6 points per game. They scored 74 points and posted a field goal percentage of 48.1% in the game. Leading the team in scoring is Mark Sears, who is averaging 20.2 heading into today’s matchup. Additionally, Aaron Estrada also maintains a PPG average of 13.3 heading into game.
At this time, the Crimson Tide’s defense is positioned 221st in the country, permitting 73.9 points per game. In their most recent game, the Alabama defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as South Carolina knocked down 15 three-pointers on their way to 47 points.
Do the Bulldogs Stand a Chance at Home?
Mississippi State will be looking to extend their three-game home winning streak when they take on Alabama. So far this season, the Bulldogs have gone 8-1 at home compared to 4-2 on the road.
For the year, Mississippi State has a scoring differential of +13.2 points per game at home, compared to +9.3 points per game on the road. They have been the favorite in 14 of their 15 games this season, going 11-3 in those contests.
Mississippi State has an ATS record of 9-6 this season and they have gone 5-4 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bulldogs have gone just 4-6 ATS.
Mississippi State’s over/under record this season is 6-8-1 and today’s line of 155.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (136.1). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 141 points, which is higher than the season average (139). So far, 13 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s OU line.
Coming off their recent game, the Mississippi State offense tallied 77 points in a matchup against Tennessee. Their field goal percentage for the game was 50%, and they made 6 threes. Josh Hubbard is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 15.1. Meanwhile, Cameron Matthews also brings a PPG average of 9.3 into the game.
So far, the Bulldogs’ defense is ranked 27th in the country at 63.7 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.0 threes per game vs. Alabama. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 27.0%.