Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons Betting Pick & Prediction 1/5/25

The Panthers and Falcons will face off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Falcons are the heavy favorite with a money line of -433, and the point spread favors them by -8 points. This week 18 matchup, being televised on CBS, is an important one within the NFC South, although the Panthers and Falcons both need to add their current season records. The over/under line is set at 48 points.

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS ATLANTA FALCONS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Carolina Panthers +8

This game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th.

WHY BET THE CAROLINA PANTHERS:

• We have the Falcons winning this one by a score of 24 to 17
• Even though we like the Falcons to win, our ATS pick is to take the Panthers at +8
• We see this game finishing below the line of 48 points

Will The Panthers Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Heading into week 18, the Panthers sit at 4-12, putting them 4th in the NFC South. They rank 32nd in our power rankings and have a -12.4 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, Carolina is 7-9, including a 7-8 record as an underdog. Their O/U record is 12-4, with the over hitting in 3 straight games.

In week 17, the Panthers couldn’t build on their week 16 win over the Cardinals, losing 48-14 to the Bucs. Carolina was a 10-point underdog and failed to cover. The 62 combined points in the game went over the 47.5-point line.

Heading into week 18, the Panthers rank 24th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 18.6 points per game, which is also 24th in the NFL. They are 31st in passing yards per game (182.4) and 20th in rushing yards per game (107.7). Carolina ranks 27th in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 34.7%, but they are 11th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 17, Bryce Young threw for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 100. Adam Thielen led the team with 5 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns. Carolina struggled on the ground, with Raheem Blackshear rushing for just 20 yards on 8 carries.

In their 48-14 loss to the Buccaneers, the Panthers’ defense gave up 551 yards and allowed 84.4% completions to Tampa Bay. Defending the pass was a major issue, as the Panthers allowed 349 yards through the air, including five passing touchdowns. The defense struggled to get off the field, allowing the Buccaneers to convert on 71.4% of their third down attempts.

On the ground, the Panthers gave up 202 rushing yards on 40 attempts, with Tampa Bay averaging 5.0 yards per attempt. Carolina managed just two sacks and lost the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -3.

Are The Falcons Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Heading into week 18, the Falcons sit at 8-8 and have a 13.9% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 19th in our power rankings and are 2nd in the NFC South with a 4-1 division record. Atlanta is 4-4 both at home and on the road.

After snapping a 4-game losing streak with wins over the Raiders and Giants, the Falcons couldn’t keep the momentum going in week 17, falling 30-24 to the Commanders. They were unable to cover as 3.5-point underdogs, dropping their ATS record to 6-9-1. They are 5-4-1 as favorites and 1-5 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-10, with their games averaging 45.6 points.

Heading into week 18, the Falcons are 15th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 16th in the NFL in points per game (21.9) and 10th in yards per game (359.4). Atlanta is 8th in passing yards per game, averaging 234.9 on 32.6 attempts per game, and 12th in rushing yards per game with 124.5 on 28.6 attempts. They sit 18th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage (37.4%) and are 12th in red zone efficiency.

Michael Penix Jr. threw for 223 yards (19/35) with 1 touchdown and 1 interception in week 17 against the Commanders. Bijan Robinson rushed for 90 yards on 17 carries, scoring twice, while Drake London had 7 catches for 106 yards. Atlanta scored 7 points in the 4th quarter but struggled on 3rd down, converting only 2 of 10 attempts.

In their most recent game, the Falcons’ defense gave up 216 rushing yards on just 36 attempts, with Washington running for 6.0 yards per attempt. Despite this, Atlanta’s defense had five sacks and held Washington to 46.2% on third down. The Falcons lost to the Commanders 30-24 in overtime, with three of Washington’s touchdowns coming through the air. Atlanta allowed 196 passing yards on 24 completions (66.7%).