SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers Betting Pick & Prediction 11/23/24

ESPN2 is covering the week 13 matchup between the SMU Mustangs and Virginia Cavaliers, set to kick off at 12:00 ET from Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. The over/under line is currently 58 points. The Mustangs are the heavy favorite at -9.5 points, and the money line odds have them at -343. SMU comes in with a 9-1 record, while Virginia is 5-5 on the season.

SMU MUSTANGS VS VIRGINIA CAVALIERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: SMU Mustangs -9.5

This game will be played at Scott Stadium at 12:00 ET on Saturday, November 23rd.

WHY BET THE SMU MUSTANGS:

• We have the SMU Mustangs winning this one by a score of 36 to 22
• Not only do we have the SMU Mustangs winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -9.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 58 points

Will The SMU Mustangs Win As Road Favorites?

With a 9-1 record, SMU heads into Week 13 against Virginia, ranked 15th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 36.4% shot at winning the Atlantic Coast. The Mustangs also have a 41.3% chance of making the playoff, the 13th best odds in the nation.

SMU is 3-0 on the road and 4-1 at home this season. They’ve been favored in six of their ten games, going 5-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +17.5 points, and they are 5-3 against the spread.

The over/under line for this week is 58 points. SMU’s games have an average over/under line of 53.9 points, and they’ve averaged 62.3 points per game. Their over/under record stands at 5-3, with an average margin of +8.0 points.

Heading into week 13, SMU’s offense ranks 6th in scoring, averaging 39.9 points per game. They are 28th in our offensive power rankings. The Mustangs have a strong rushing attack, averaging 197.4 yards per game on 39.2 attempts.

Brashard Smith leads the ground game with 1,023 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 2,198 yards with a passer rating of 107. SMU is 19th in third-down conversions, converting 46.1% of their attempts.

SMU’s defense has been strong against the run this season, ranking 10th nationally by allowing just 100.5 rushing yards per game. In their recent game against Boston College, they gave up 180 rushing yards on 43 attempts and allowed three rushing touchdowns. Through the air, SMU allowed 237 passing yards but also recorded an interception.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 54.4% of their passes against SMU, the 19th-lowest rate in the country. On average, SMU’s defense has faced 37.2 pass attempts per game, allowing 249.6 passing yards per game. Overall, they rank 37th in the nation, giving up 22.4 points per game.

Are The Virginia Cavaliers Going Win In At Upset At Scott Stadium

Virginia enters Week 13 with a 5-5 record, and they have a 39.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, they are 1-3, while their road record stands at 3-2. The Cavaliers have been favored in five games this season, going 3-2 in those matchups.

Against the spread, Virginia is 5-3-1, with a 3-1-1 record on the road and 2-2 at home. They are 2-2-1 ATS as the favorite and 3-1 as the underdog, with an average scoring margin of -2.7 points per game.

The over/under line for this week is set at 58 points. Virginia’s games have averaged 52.3 points, and their over/under record is 3-6, with an average line of 54.8 points this season.

Virginia’s offense ranks 85th in our power rankings heading into week 13, averaging 24.8 points per game. They are 29th in passing attempts, with Anthony Colandrea throwing for 2,017 yards and 12 touchdowns, though he has 11 interceptions and a passer rating of 79.

Virginia is 48th in passing yards per game, and their third-down conversion rate is 35.1%, ranking 102nd nationally. Xavier Brown leads the rushing attack with 488 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, but has only one touchdown. Malachi Fields has 746 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

Virginia’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27.5 points per game. In their recent game against Notre Dame, they gave up 35 points, including three passing touchdowns, while allowing 450 total yards, with 236 yards on the ground.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged a 90.5 passer rating against Virginia, throwing for 258 yards per game. On the ground, Virginia has allowed 143.9 rushing yards per game on 34.2 attempts.