Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Betting Pick & Prediction 11/14/24

The Eagles are favored at -174 on the money line as they host Washington at 8:15 ET on Thursday, November 14th. The Eagles are favored by -3.5 in this week 11 matchup, with the over/under line set at 48.5 points. The game is being televised on AMZN.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Washington Commanders +3.5

This game will be played at Lincoln Financial Field at 8:15 ET on Thursday, November 14th.

WHY BET THE WASHINGTON COMMANDERS:

• We have the Eagles winning this one by a score of 26 to 23
• Even though we like the Eagles to win, our ATS pick is to take the Commanders at +3.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 48.5 points

Will The Commanders Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Washington enters week 11 with a 7-3 record, placing them 9th in our power rankings and giving them an 89.5% chance of making the playoffs. They are 2-0 in the NFC East, including a win over the Giants in week 9, but couldn’t follow that up with a victory in week 10, losing 28-27 to the Steelers. The Commanders were 1.5-point favorites in that game.

Washington is 7-2-1 against the spread, with a +7.3 scoring margin. They are 5-1 ATS as favorites and 2-1-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-3, with the over hitting in their last two games. Their matchups have averaged 50.7 points per game, compared to an average line of 46.

Jayden Daniels’ passer rating has dropped in each of his last three games, going from 128 in week 9 to 68 in week 10, where he threw for 202 yards on 17/34 passing without a touchdown. Terry McLaurin led the team with 113 receiving yards on 5 catches, while Austin Ekeler had 44 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 carries. Washington scored all 28 of their points in the first three quarters against the Steelers, failing to score in the 4th.

Heading into week 11, the Commanders rank 2nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 3rd in the NFL in points per game (29) and 4th in yards per game (377), with a focus on the run game, averaging 31.5 rushing attempts per game. Despite leading the league in red zone attempts, they rank 28th in red zone conversion percentage at 9.1%.

In their most recent game, Washington’s defense gave up just 172 passing yards on 14 completions to the Steelers. However, they did allow three passing touchdowns, as Pittsburgh pulled out a 28-27 win. Washington struggled against the run, allowing 140 yards on 43 attempts, but they did force one interception and held Pittsburgh to a 48.3% completion rate.

Washington’s defense also recorded three sacks and held Pittsburgh to a 43.8% third-down conversion rate. Despite their efforts, the Commanders gave up three passing touchdowns and allowed the Steelers to come back and win 28-27.

Are The Eagles Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

With five straight wins, the Eagles now sit at 7-2, putting them first in the NFC East and second in the conference. Their streak includes a 28-point win over the Cowboys in week 10, a 5-point victory over the Jaguars in week 9, and a 20-point road win over the Bengals in week 8. Philadelphia also picked up wins over the Giants in week 7 and the Browns in week 6.

Heading into week 11, the Eagles have a 63.4% chance of winning the division and a 95.3% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 7th in our NFL power rankings and have an average scoring margin of +8 points per game. Against the spread, Philadelphia is 5-4, including a 3-4 record as the favorite and a 2-0 mark as the underdog.

Philadelphia’s offense has been leaning heavily on the run game this season, leading the NFL with 36 rushing attempts per game and ranking 2nd in rushing yards with 176.1 per game. Saquon Barkley rushed for 66 yards on 14 carries in week 10 after posting 159 yards on 27 carries in week 9. The Eagles are 20th in passing yards, averaging 197.8 per game, despite ranking 31st in pass attempts. Jalen Hurts threw for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 10, following his 230-yard, 2-touchdown performance in week 9.

Philadelphia ranks 6th in the NFL in both points per game (25.9) and total yards (373.9). They are 14th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 39.2% success rate, and 26th in red zone conversion percentage. The Eagles have struggled in the 1st quarter, ranking 28th in scoring. Heading into week 11, they are 8th in our offensive power rankings.

In their 34-6 win over the Cowboys, the Eagles’ defense was outstanding, giving up just 49 yards passing and forcing one interception. Dallas managed only 97 yards rushing on 24 attempts, averaging exactly 4.0 yards per attempt. The Eagles defended the run well, and Dallas couldn’t get anything going through the air, finishing with a 58.6% completion rate and going just 3-of-14 on third down.

Philadelphia’s defense also came away with three sacks in the game and completely shut down the Cowboys’ passing game, not allowing a single touchdown.