Tarleton State Texans vs SMU Mustangs NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/4/24
Looking to win big? The Texans and Mustangs face off at 8:30 ET on ACC. The Mustangs are hosting the game at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX. The over/under for this game is set at 144 points, and SMU is favored by -14.5 against Tarleton State in a non-conference matchup.
TARLETON STATE TEXANS VS SMU MUSTANGS BETTING PICK
The Pick: SMU Mustangs -14.5
This game will be played at Moody Coliseum at 8:30 ET on Monday, November 4th.
WHY BET THE SMU MUSTANGS:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 90-58 in favor of the Mustangs.
- Not only will SMU pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -14.5.
- The over/under is currently sitting at 144 points, and we like the over with a projected 148 points.
Will Tarleton State Find a Way to Win on the Road?
Tarleton State Texans Records
Tarleton State finished last season with a 20-9 overall record, including a 16-5 mark in WAC play. At home, they went 10-4, with an average scoring margin of +5.6 points per game. On the road, they were 10-5, but their average scoring margin was -2.6 points per game.
Against the spread, the Texans were 18-11, and they had a 10-5 ATS record in road games. As the favorite, they went 12-4 straight-up and 9-7 ATS. As the underdog, they were 8-5 straight-up and 9-4 ATS. Their games averaged 142.3 points, and their over/under record was 18-11, with an average line of 138.7 points.
Tarleton State averaged 73.5 points per game last season, but they played at a slow pace, ranking 355th with 62.1 possessions per game. They were 155th in field goal percentage at 45%, and their effective field goal percentage was 50%, placing them 250th. The Texans struggled from beyond the arc, making 5.6 threes per game on 32% shooting, ranking 333rd and 315th, respectively.
Freddy Hicks is Tarleton State’s top returning player, having averaged 11.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2 assists per game last season. Dantwan Grimes also returns after averaging 4.7 points in 12 games last year.
Tarleton State allowed 68.7 points per game last season, ranking 80th in the nation. They held opponents to 30.2% shooting from beyond the arc, which was 105th in the country. The Texans gave up 18.1 free throws per game, ranking 161st.
Tarleton State was 19th in the nation in steals, averaging 8.9 per game. They also averaged 3.6 blocked shots per game, ranking 143rd.
Does SMU Have What it Takes at Home?
SMU Mustangs Records
SMU finished last season with a 19-12 overall record, going 11-8 in Atlantic Coast Conference play. At home, they posted a 13-4 record, winning by an average margin of 12.0 points per game. On the road, they went 6-8, with a +3.6 average scoring margin.
The Mustangs were 14-16 against the spread, and they went 11-11 ATS as the favorite. As the underdog, they were 1-7 straight-up and 3-5 ATS. Their games averaged 144.1 points, and they had a 13-18 over/under record, with an average O/U line of 144.8 points.
SMU averaged 76.3 points per game last season, ranking 31st in possessions per game with 66.1. They shot 44% from the field, placing 201st, and had an effective field goal percentage of 50%, ranking 222nd. The Mustangs made 7.5 three-pointers per game, shooting 33% from beyond the arc, which was 225th nationally.
Kevin Miller, who averaged 15.2 points, 3.6 assists, and 2.8 rebounds last season, returns for SMU. Yohan Traore also returns after averaging 14.5 points and 5.1 rebounds per game last year.
SMU allowed 67.8 points per game last season, ranking 65th in the nation. Opponents shot 31.2% from three-point range against them, placing SMU 155th in that category. They also gave up 19 free throws per game, ranking 202nd nationally.
SMU was one of the top teams in the country in blocked shots, averaging 4.9 per game, which ranked 25th. They also averaged 8.5 steals per game, ranking 33rd in the nation.