Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan Wolverines Betting Pick & Prediction 10/26/24

Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor will be the site for this week nine Big Ten matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans. The game is set for 7:30 ET, and you can catch the action on BTN. The over/under line is currently at 40.5 points, and the Wolverines are -5.5 point favorites. Both teams come in with identical 4-3 records for the season.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS VS MICHIGAN WOLVERINES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Michigan State Spartans +5.5

This game will be played at Michigan Stadium at 7:30 ET on Saturday, October 26th.

WHY BET THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS:

• We have the Michigan Wolverines winning this one by a score of 17 to 16
• Even though we like the Michigan Wolverines to win, our ATS pick is to take the Michigan State Spartans at +5.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 40.5 points

Will The Michigan State Spartans Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Michigan State enters Week 9 against Michigan with a 4-3 record, ranked 62nd in our power rankings. They have a 78.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but no chance of winning the Big Ten. The Spartans are 2-1 at home and 1-2 on the road this season.

Against the spread, Michigan State is 4-2, going 3-0 on the road and 1-2 at home. They’ve been favored in just one game and have a +0.7 average scoring margin this season.

The Spartans’ over/under record is 2-4, with their games averaging 42.4 points. Their average over/under line is 45.7 points, and this week’s line is set at 40.5 points.

Michigan State’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 21.6 points per game, which ranks them 85th nationally. Heading into week 9, they are 66th in our offensive power rankings. Their rushing attack is producing 136.1 yards per game, and they are 60th in rushing attempts.

Kay’ron Lynch-Adams leads the team with 424 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored two touchdowns. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has thrown for 1,468 yards but has six touchdowns to ten interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 72.

Michigan State’s defense is ranked 33rd nationally, allowing 20.9 points per game. In their recent win against Iowa, they gave up 20 points, allowing 283 total yards, including 133 rushing yards and 150 passing yards, while forcing one interception.

Opponents are averaging 192 passing yards per game against Michigan State, completing 59.5% of their passes. The Spartans’ defense has faced an average of 34 rushing attempts per game, giving up 133.4 rushing yards per contest.

Are The Michigan Wolverines Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Michigan enters Week 9 with a 4-3 record, hosting Michigan State. The Wolverines are 4-1 at home but 0-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in four games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Our projections give them a 68.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, but only a 0.1% chance of winning the Big Ten.

Against the spread, Michigan is 1-6 this season, with an average scoring margin of -1 point per game. They are 0-4 ATS as the favorite and 1-2 as the underdog, while their home ATS record stands at 1-4.

The over/under line for this week is 40.5 points. Michigan’s games have averaged an over/under line of 42.5 points, and their over/under record is 4-3, with games averaging 43.3 points.

Michigan’s offense has struggled heading into week 9, ranking 87th in points per game with 21.1 and 86th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game has been particularly weak, averaging just 128.3 yards per game, placing them 122nd nationally. Quarterback Davis Warren has thrown six interceptions compared to just two touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 57.

Overall, Michigan ranks 129th in passer rating. Warren has thrown for 444 yards this season, completing 66.7% of his passes. On the ground, Michigan is 30th in rushing attempts per game, averaging 181.1 yards. Kalel Mullings leads the team with 676 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry.

Michigan’s defense allowed 21 points in their recent 21-7 loss to Illinois, giving up 267 total yards. They held Illinois to 80 passing yards but allowed 187 rushing yards on 38 attempts.

On the season, Michigan ranks 11th nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 92.1 yards per game. However, they’ve struggled against the pass, ranking 112th, giving up 234.1 yards per game.