Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills Betting Pick & Prediction 10/20/24

The Titans and Bills will face off on Sunday, October 20th at 1:00 ET on CBS. The Bills are heavily favored with a money line of -450, and the point spread is -8.5 in their favor. The over/under line is set at 42.5 points. Buffalo is looking to add to their record, and Tennessee is the significant underdog on the road.

TENNESSEE TITANS VS BUFFALO BILLS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Tennessee Titans +8.5

This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 20th.

WHY BET THE TENNESSEE TITANS:

• We have the Titans winning this one by a score of 23 to 12
• Not only do we have the Titans winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +8.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 42.5 points

Will The Titans Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Heading into week 7, the Titans are 1-4, putting them 3rd in the AFC South. Their playoff chances sit at 7.8%, and they rank 23rd in our power rankings. Tennessee is 1-1 on the road and 0-3 at home, with their lone win coming in week 4 against the Dolphins. In that game, they were 2.5-point underdogs but pulled off a 31-12 victory. However, they couldn’t carry that momentum into week 6, falling 20-17 to the Colts.

Against the spread, the Titans are 1-4, with their only win coming as underdogs vs Miami. They couldn’t cover as 2.5-point favorites against the Colts, and their scoring margin this season is -2.8 points per game. Their O/U record is 2-2-1, with their games averaging 41.2 points.

Heading into week 7, the Titans are 27th in our offensive power rankings. They’re 19th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 19.2, but rank 31st in both passing yards (135 per game) and total yards (253.2 per game). Tennessee is 15th in rushing, with 118.2 yards per game, and 23rd in passing attempts. They’ve struggled on third down, converting just 29.3% of the time, but they’re 6th in the league in red zone conversion percentage.

Will Levis threw for 95 yards (16/27) in week 6, with one touchdown and one interception. DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 54 receiving yards on 4 catches, while Tony Pollard had 93 rushing yards on 17 carries. The Titans scored 17 points against the Colts, with 7 in the 1st quarter, 3 in the 2nd, and 7 in the 3rd.

Despite allowing just 80 rushing yards on 2.9 yards per attempt, the Titans’ defense gave up 189 passing yards to the Colts in their most recent game. Tennessee lost 20-17, with the defense allowing Indianapolis to convert 46.7% of their third down attempts. The Titans did force one interception but were unable to record any sacks.

Overall, the Titans held the Colts to 269 total yards, and the defense was tough to move the ball on, with the Colts averaging just 5 yards per pass attempt. However, Tennessee did give up two passing touchdowns in the game.

Are The Bills Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Buffalo’s week 6 win over the Jets put them at 4-2, keeping them in 1st place in the AFC East. The Bills have a +6.5 scoring margin this season and are 3-3 against the spread. They covered the 1-point spread against New York but failed to do so in their previous two games, including a 25-point loss to the Ravens in week 4 and a 3-point loss to the Texans in week 5.

Heading into week 7, our analytics give Buffalo a 94.7% chance of making the playoffs and an 86.1% chance of winning the division. They rank 5th in our NFL power rankings. So far, the O/U line has gone 3-3 in their games, with an average of 48.5 points scored.

Josh Allen bounced back in week 6, posting a passer rating of 127 against the Jets, completing 19 of 25 passes for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns. Buffalo’s offense started strong, scoring 20 points in the first half, but they were held to just a field goal in the 4th quarter. Ray Davis led the team in rushing with 97 yards on 20 carries and also had 3 catches for 55 yards.

Buffalo ranks 6th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 27.5, but they are 21st in total yards per game. They are 28th in passing attempts and 25th in passing yards per game, while ranking 11th in both rushing attempts and rushing yards. On 3rd down, they rank 22nd in the league, converting 34.3% of their attempts.

In their 23-20 win over the Jets, the Bills’ defense gave up 393 yards, with 272 yards coming through the air. The Jets completed 65.7% of their passes and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt. Buffalo defended 21 rushing attempts for 121 yards, allowing the Jets to gain 5.8 yards per attempt on the ground.

Buffalo’s defense came up with three sacks and an interception, and they held the Jets to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down. Despite allowing two passing touchdowns, they were able to pressure the quarterback, coming out ahead in the QB hit, and tackles for loss differentials.