Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Texas State Bobcats Betting Pick & Prediction 10/12/24

Arkansas State and Texas State are both 3-2 coming into this week seven matchup, which is set for 7:00 ET at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+, and the over/under line is at 63.5 points. The Bobcats are the -14.5 point favorites at home. The money line odds have the Bobcats at -668 and the Red Wolves at +462.

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES VS TEXAS STATE BOBCATS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves +14.5

This game will be played at UFCU Stadium at 7:00 ET on Saturday, October 12th.

WHY BET THE ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES:

• We have the Texas State Bobcats winning this one by a score of 36 to 34
• Even though we like the Texas State Bobcats to win, our ATS pick is to take the Arkansas State Red Wolves at +14.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 63.5 points

Will The Arkansas State Red Wolves Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Arkansas State enters Week 7 with a 3-2 record, facing Texas State on the road. They are 2-0 at home but have struggled away, going 0-2. Ranked 105th in our power rankings, they have a 66.9% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. So far, they’ve been favored in just one game this season.

Their ATS record is 2-2, with a 1-1 mark at home and on the road. As favorites, they are 0-1 against the spread but have gone 2-1 ATS as underdogs. Arkansas State’s average scoring margin this season is -9.2 points per game.

The over/under line for this week’s game is 63.5 points. Arkansas State’s games have averaged 51.2 points, with an average over/under line of 57 points. Their over/under record this season stands at 1-3.

Arkansas State’s offense has struggled this season, ranking 108th in our offensive power rankings and averaging 21 points per game. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 1,125 yards, but he has just four touchdowns and five interceptions, leading to a passer rating of 75. The team ranks 24th in passing attempts per game.

Corey Rucker leads the receiving corps with 437 yards and two touchdowns. On the ground, Arkansas State is averaging 102.4 rushing yards per game. Zak Wallace has rushed for 164 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 3 yards per carry.

Arkansas State’s defense stepped up in their recent game against South Alabama, allowing just 16 points. They gave up 453 total yards, including 292 passing yards, but also forced an interception and didn’t allow a rushing touchdown.

On the season, Arkansas State is giving up an average of 30.2 points per game. Opponents are averaging 219.4 rushing yards per game against them, while quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of 83.2 and completed 61% of their passes.

Are The Texas State Bobcats Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Texas State enters Week 7 with a 3-2 record, hosting Arkansas State. They are ranked 71st in our power rankings and have a 95.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. So far, they are 1-1 at home and 1-1 on the road this season.

The Bobcats have been favored in four of their five games, going 2-2 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +12.6 points, and they are 2-2 against the spread this season.

This week’s over/under line is 63.5 points, higher than any of their previous games. Texas State’s over/under record is 2-1-1, with their games averaging 62.6 points and an average line of 57.4 points.

Texas State’s offense ranks 20th nationally in scoring, averaging 37.6 points per game, and they are 40th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7. Their passing game has been the focal point, ranking 17th in completions and averaging 285.6 yards per game. They complete 69.3% of their passes and convert 44.8% of their third downs.

Quarterback Jordan McCloud has thrown for 1,393 yards with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, earning a passer rating of 111. Leading receiver Jaden Williams has 365 yards and four touchdowns on 27 catches. On the ground, Texas State averages 171 rushing yards per game.

Texas State’s defense played a key role in their 38-17 win over Troy, allowing just 17 points. They limited Troy to 64 rushing yards on 32 attempts, while giving up 268 passing yards and two touchdowns.

On the season, Texas State ranks 50th nationally in rushing yards allowed, giving up 122.8 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 54.1% of their passes against Texas State, the 17th-lowest percentage in the country.