Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Prediction 9/27/24

From Target Field in Minneapolis, we have the Orioles and Twins facing off in an AL matchup. Friday’s first pitch is set for 8:10 PM ET, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Cade Povich is starting for the Orioles, and he is facing off against Pablo Lopez for the Twins.

Minnesota comes into the game as heavy favorites, with their money line odds sitting at -173. The Orioles are +144 on the money line, and this one’s odds are on the under at -107 compared to the over at -114. Baltimore is 2nd in the AL East, while the Twins are 4th in the AL Central. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.

MINNESOTA TWINS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline -173

This game will be played at Target Field at 8:10 ET on Friday, September 27th.

HOW TO BET THE ORIOLES VS TWINS:

• We have the Twins winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Orioles to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Orioles Records & Stats

The Orioles will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Yankees with a 10-1 loss. Baltimore was the +141 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Orioles, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Yankees scored six times in the bottom of the second.

Baltimore started Corbin Burnes, and he took the loss, going five innings and giving up six earned runs on only two hits. He also issued seven walks and hit a batter. The Orioles’s offense scored their only run in the 9th inning and finished with a total of seven hits.

With an overall record of 88-71, the Orioles are five games behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. Baltimore is 32-20 against other AL East teams this season. The Orioles will be on the road today to take on the Twins, and they are 44-34 on the road compared to 44-37 at home.

Baltimore won the final two games of their series vs. the Yankees and are 2nd in the AL East. They have an overall series record of 26-18-7 this year, and they have lost three straight series at home. As the favorite, the Orioles are 70-52 this year and 18-19 as the underdog. Their overall record over their last ten games is 4-6.

When the Orioles are on the road, they have the best run line record in the majors at 46-32. They are 84-75 overall, with an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game. They have an average run differential of +0.6 runs per game on the road compared to +0.3 runs per game at home. As the favorite, they are 60-62 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 24-13.

The Orioles have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games this season, with their combined run average sitting at 9.2. Their over/under record is 85-63, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over in 26 of 48 games. The over has hit in two straight games for Baltimore, and today’s O/U line is set at 8.5 runs.

Left-hander Cade Povich gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Twins on the road. Povich has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 2-9 with an ERA of 5.59. So far, he has turned in three quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he finished with a no-decision. Against the Tigers on September 21st, he went five innings, giving up two earned runs, and seven strikeouts. Povich has struggled on the road, going 0-5 with an 18.14 ERA compared to 2-4 with a 3.90 ERA at home.

Anthony Santander has been the Orioles’ top power threat this season, as he is 3rd in the league with 44 home runs. However, he has struggled at the plate of late, hitting just .152 over his last nine games. Gunnar Henderson has been hot of late, going 12/38 in his last nine games, but he has yet to go deep during that stretch.

As a team, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and have the 5th best scoring offense in the league at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .248 as a team and have the league’s 2nd best isolated power figure.

Twins Records & Stats

The Twins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Marlins with an 8-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 10th inning before the Marlins scored three runs in the top of the 11th. Minnesota was the -254 favorite at home going into the game.

David Festa got the start for the Twins and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs on seven hits. The Twins also wasted a big game from Carlos Correa, who went 3/5 with a homer and two RBIs.

Minnesota will take on the Orioles at home today with an overall record of 82-77, putting them 4th in the AL Central. Currently, they trail the Guardians by 10 games. The Twins are 29-23 against other teams in the AL Central this year.

At home, the Twins have gone 43-35 this year compared to 39-42 on the road. So far, they have really enjoyed being the favorite, going 65-47, but they are just 17-30 as the underdog. The team is looking to snap a four-series losing streak, and their overall series record is 26-21-4. Minnesota lost two of three in their series vs. the Marlins and are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.

Minnesota has been a decent run line bet this season, going 73-86 overall. They have been slightly better at home, going 33-45. They have been a better run line bet on the road, going 40-41. They have been a better run line bet as an underdog, going 25-22. Their average run margin this season is +0.1 runs per game.

The Minnesota Twins have an over/under record of 81-72 this season, and their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, they have a record of 26-22. Overall, 61.0% of their games have had lower over/under lines than 8.5 runs. Their games have gone over the line in their last two games, and they have played just 14 games this season with a higher over/under line than 8.5 runs.

Pablo López will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Red Sox, as he gave up seven earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Before that start, he had pitched well, going 7 innings and giving up just one earned run vs. the Angels. Lopez has a record of 15-9 and an ERA of 4.11. For the season, he has made 31 starts and has a WHIP of 1.18. Looking at his walk numbers, Lopez is averaging just 1.9 per nine innings compared to 9.52 strikeouts.

Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs this season, with 22, but is batting just .234 this season. Willi Castro has been a solid run producer for the Twins, batting .248 with 60 RBIs. Castro has also gone deep 12 times this season. Ryan Jeffers is 2nd on the team in RBIs and home runs, but like Santana, he is batting below the Mendoza line at just .225.

Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been two of the Twins’ hottest hitters of late. Correa has gone 11/32 in his last eight games, while Buxton is on a six-game hitting streak and is 9/33 in his last seven games. Both players also have one home run during this stretch.