Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Prediction 9/26/24

At 12:35 PM ET, the Brewers and Pirates will face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the Brewers are the first in the NL Central with a record of 90-68, while the Pirates are 5th in the division with a record of 74-84.

The over/under line for Thursday’s game is currently at 8 runs, and the Brewers are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -121 compared to the Pirates at +103. Aaron Civale will start for the Brewers, while the Pirates are sending Mitch Keller to the mound. The game can be seen on BSWI.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -121

This game will be played at PNC Park at 12:35 ET on Thursday, September 26th.

HOW TO BET THE BREWERS VS PIRATES:

• We have the Brewers winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Pirates to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Pittsburgh picked up a 2-1 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates offense only had three hits in the game but still picked up the win. Heading into the game, they were at +137 on the money line.

Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the Brewers could only muster one more run in the 5th inning. As for the Pirates, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 5th, and both offenses went silent after that.

Luis L. Ortiz got the win for the Pirates out of the bullpen, while Aroldis Chapman got the save. Freddy Peralta had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss. He went just 5 1/3 innings and gave up two earned runs on two hits.

Brewers Records & Stats

Milwaukee is 90-68 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL Central. They hold a nine-game lead over the Cardinals for the division lead. The Brewers will be on the road today, taking on the Pirates. Milwaukee is 31-20 against other teams in the NL Central this year.

As the Brewers are tied in their series vs. the Pirates, they are just 4-6 across their last ten games. Milwaukee has won four straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 28-18-3 this year.

When betting on the Milwaukee Brewers’ run line this season, it’s been better to take them as the underdog. They are 44-23 against the run line in those games, compared to 35-56 as the favorite. The Brewers’ overall run line record is 79-79, with an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game.

The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The O/U line for the game is set at 8 runs, which is slightly below their season average of 8.8 runs per game. The Brewers have played 84 games this season with O/U lines set at 8 runs or higher, which accounts for 53.2% of their games. When the O/U line has been set at 8 runs, their record is 13-13-5.

Milwaukee is sending right-hander Aaron Civale to the mound today vs. the Pirates. He has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.53. Civale’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.33. In his 30 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Civale took the loss vs. the Diamondbacks, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came on the road.

Heading into today’s game, the Brewers are 6th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Milwaukee is also one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts and are 3rd in the league in walks. Overall, they are 9th in team batting average at .248.

Willy Adames has been a key part of the Brewers’ offense this season, as he is 10th in the league with 32 homers and 4th in the league with 111 RBIs. Adames is also currently on a three-game hitting streak. William Contreras is batting .283 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 92 RBIs. Rhys Hoskins has 25 homers but has struggled with a batting average of just .214.

Pirates Records & Stats

Pittsburgh is 74-84 overall this season, and they are 16 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Pirates are also 5th in the division, trailing the Reds by 1.5 games for the 4th spot in the division. So far, they have gone 25-26 against other teams in the NL Central.

At home, the Pirates are 39-41 this season and 35-43 on the road. Pittsburgh has dropped three straight series and has an overall series record of 20-24-5 this year. As the underdog, the Pirates are 40-56 and 34-28 when favored.

When the Pirates win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.1 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.6 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 84-74, and their average run margin is -0.5 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line on the road, where they are 45-33, compared to 39-41 at home. As the underdog, they are 60-36 on the run line, compared to 24-38 as the favorite.

When the Pittsburgh Pirates play at home, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Pirates have an over/under record of 76-80 on the season, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game. This season, 49.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs, and in those games, the over/under record is 17-20.

Mitch Keller will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Reds, as he gets the start for the Pirates today. Against the Reds, Keller took the loss, giving up eight runs (three earned) in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, Keller has given up at least three earned runs in each. Keller’s ERA for the season is 4.21, along with a record of 11-11. Out of his 30 starts, Keller has turned in 15 quality starts and has a WHIP of 1.29. Per nine innings, he is averaging 2.5 walks compared to 8.32 strikeouts.

So far this season, the Pirates offense has been below average in terms of scoring runs, as they are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been even worse in terms of power, as their 151 homers is also 24th in the league. The team’s collective batting average is .235, and they are averaging 9 strikeouts per game.

Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz have been the Pirates’ top power hitters this season, with Reynolds leading the team with 22 homers and Cruz right behind him with 21. Reynolds also has the team’s top batting average at .274. Over his last seven games, Cruz is just 4/21, but he does have two home runs during that stretch. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is hitting .303 over his last eight games and is currently on a three-game hitting streak.