Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Prediction 9/9/24

At 6:40 PM ET, the Marlins and Pirates face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -253. The money line odds for a Marlins win are at +210, and they are 5th in the NL East, while the Pirates are 5th in the NL Central.

The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and the forecast for Monday’s game in Pittsburgh calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. BSFL will be televising this matchup, and Paul Skenes will start for the Pirates, while the Marlins are going with Valente Bellozo.

MIAMI MARLINS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES BETTING PICK

The Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs

This game will be played at PNC Park at 6:40 ET on Monday, September 9th.

HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS PIRATES:

• We have the Pirates winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Marlins Records & Stats

Miami is coming off a big 10-1 win over the Phillies to close out their series. Heading into the game, the Marlins were the slight favorite at +113 on the money line. It was a seven-run 3rd inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Phillies could only score one run, which came in the 9th.

Edward Cabrera put together a good start for the Marlins, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out six Phillies batters. Miami’s offense was carried by Connor Norby, who went 2/4 with two homers and four RBIs.

Miami is on the road today to take on the Pirates, and they are 54-89 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East. The Marlins trail the Phillies by 31 games in the division and are 5th in the NL East. So far, they have gone just 16-29 in divisional games.

The Marlins have won two straight games, and this came after splitting their series with the Phillies. Miami’s overall series record is 11-26-9 this year, and they are 4-14 as the favorite. As for their record as the underdog, they are 50-75. At home, the Marlins are 28-47 compared to 26-42 on the road.

When the Marlins are on the road, they are 35-33 against the run line. They have covered in two straight games and are 65-60 against the run line as an underdog. Miami’s average run differential on the road is -1.0 runs per game.

The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Marlins games this season is 9.0 runs, and their over/under record is 78-61. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 21-8. Miami has played 105 games with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, accounting for 73.4% of their games. They have played just 9 games with over/under lines set lower than 7.5 runs, or 6.3% of their games. The over has hit in Miami’s last 3 games.

Miami is sending Valente Bellozo to the mound today vs. the Pirates, and he has made nine starts this year. Bellozo’s record for the season is 2-2, and he has an ERA of 3.78. So far, he has made two quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that September 4th start vs. the Nationals, Bellozo went six innings and gave up just one hit. Looking back at his last three outings, he has finished with a no-decision in all three. Bellozo has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings.

Over his last seven games, Connor Norby has been on fire for the Marlins, going 10/29 with four homers and nine RBIs. This has helped him put together a seven-game hitting streak. Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, as Burger has 25 homers and Sánchez has 17. Burger also leads the team with 60 RBIs.

Overall, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and on-base percentage. As a team, they are batting .241, which is 15th in the league. Miami’s offense has been slightly better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game.

Pirates Records & Stats

The Pirates’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with a 7-3 win. After allowing one run to the Nationals in the top of the first, the Pirates responded with four runs of their own. Pittsburgh went on to add another three runs in the 2nd inning.

Jared Jones put together a good start for the Pirates, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs, and picking up the win. Pittsburgh’s offense was carried by Andrew McCutchen, who went 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.

Pittsburgh is 67-76 overall and trails the Reds by 1.5 games for 4th place in the NL Central. The Pirates are 15 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. This season, they have gone 22-20 in divisional games.

At home, the Pirates are 34-38 this season and 33-38 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 56 games, going 30-26 in those matchups. As the underdog, the Pirates are 37-50 this season. Their overall series record is 19-21-6, and they split their most recent series vs. the Nationals.

When the Pirates win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.3 runs per game. However, they have been outscored by an average of 0.3 runs per game this season. Their run line record is 79-64, with a 36-36 mark at home. They have been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 43-28, compared to 36-36 at home. As the underdog, they are 57-30 vs. the run line, compared to 22-34 as the favorite.

The Pirates are 12-18 when the O/U line is 7.5 runs, and the combined run average in their games is 8.8 runs. The O/U line for their game today against the Marlins is 7.5 runs, and the over has hit in two straight games for Pittsburgh. The over/under record for the Pirates this season is 71-70, and the average O/U line in their games is 8 runs. They have played 103 games with O/U lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 72.0% of their games this season.

Through 19 starts, Paul Skenes has a record of 9-2 and an ERA of 2.13. This season, he has made 13 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. Against the Cubs on September 3rd, Skenes went five innings, picking up the win in the outing. Looking back at his last four outings, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of them. Skenes’ ERA at home is 2.83 compared to 1.5 on the road. So far, he has a record of 5-1 at home.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, putting up 4.4 runs per game. Overall, they are 21st in home runs and have a team batting average of .236. The Pirates have been striking out a lot this season, as their 9 strikeouts per game is the 24th worst mark in the league.

Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top power hitter this season, as he leads the team with 22 homers and 80 RBIs. He is also batting .276. Andrew McCutchen and Bryan De La Cruz are tied for 2nd on the team with 19 homers. McCutchen is batting just .237 for the season and has gone 4/18 in his last five games.